Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay preview
In the match between Zhetysu and FK Tobol Kostanay, the 1X2 probabilities show FK Tobol Kostanay at 55%, while Zhetysu stands at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which occurs at a 10% likelihood. Both teams have had mixed recent form, with Zhetysu winning 2 out of their last 6 matches and FK Tobol Kostanay winning 4 out of 6.
The model indicates a 55% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score. Zhetysu has expected goals of 1.05, while FK Tobol Kostanay has a higher expected goals figure of 1.84. If Zhetysu can improve their scoring efficiency, the outcome could differ from the model's prediction.
Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay: model vs market
| Source | Zhetysu | Draw | FK Tobol Kostanay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Zhetysu and FK Tobol Kostanay expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.88
- Attack rating (Zhetysu / FK Tobol Kostanay)
- 0.68 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Zhetysu / FK Tobol Kostanay)
- 1.22 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zhetysu goals. Columns: FK Tobol Kostanay goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zhetysu | 21% | 4.87 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zhetysu or draw) | 46% | 2.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or FK Tobol Kostanay) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Tobol Kostanay win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Zhetysu and FK Tobol Kostanay recent form
Zhetysu
2W 0D 4L
FK Tobol Kostanay
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zhetysu at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.85
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Tobol Kostanay away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-10
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Zhetysu at home only, FK Tobol Kostanay away only.
Zhetysu vs FK Tobol Kostanay head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Zhetysu 0 · draws 1 · FK Tobol Kostanay 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 2-2 | Zhetysu | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-10-19 | Zhetysu | 1-2 | FK Tobol Kostanay | Kazakhstan Premier League |
| 2025-06-21 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 2-1 | Zhetysu | Kazakhstan Premier League |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Okzhetpes v Kaspiy — match page 2026-10-24
- Kyzyl-Zhar vs Ulytau 2026-10-24
- Ordabasy v Zhenys — match page 2026-10-24
- Altay vs Yelimay Semey — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atyrau vs Irtysh 2026-10-25
- Aktobe vs Kairat Almaty — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- FC Astana vs Kaisar 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Zhetysu, previous: Zhetysu v Kaisar analysis
- FK Tobol Kostanay, previous: FK Tobol Kostanay – Zhenys, 2026-10-17