Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn preview

In the upcoming match between Etzella Ettelbruck and Progres Niederkorn, the 1X2 probabilities show Progres Niederkorn at 60%, while Etzella Ettelbruck sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, which occurs with a 13% probability. This suggests a tight match where Progres Niederkorn is favored to secure a narrow victory.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Etzella Ettelbruck manages to improve their attacking output, as they have an expected goals figure of only 0.78 compared to Progres Niederkorn's 1.78. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 47%, and both teams to score is at 46%, indicating that while a low-scoring game is likely, surprises can happen.

Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Etzella Ettelbruck	Draw	Progres Niederkorn
Model	15%	25%	60%
Market	—	—	—
Published	15%	25%	60%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.78.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Etzella Ettelbruck and Progres Niederkorn expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.78Etzella Ettelbruck

1.78Progres Niederkorn

Total expected goals: 2.56
Attack rating (Etzella Ettelbruck / Progres Niederkorn): 0.71 / 1.04
Defence rating (Etzella Ettelbruck / Progres Niederkorn): 1.21 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.8% 12.7% 12.3% 7.3% 4.8% 1 5.0% 11.8% 9.5% 5.7% 3.8% 2 2.3% 4.2% 3.7% 2.2% 1.5% 3 0.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Etzella Ettelbruck goals. Columns: Progres Niederkorn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 47%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niederkorn

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Etzella Ettelbruck	15%	6.72
	Draw	25%	4.00
	Progres Niederkorn	60%	1.66
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	47%	2.12
	Under 2.5	53%	1.89
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.17
	No	54%	1.85
Double chance	1X (Etzella Ettelbruck or draw)	40%	2.51
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Progres Niederkorn)	85%	1.17
Handicap -1	Progres Niederkorn win by 2+	35%	2.82
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Etzella Ettelbruck and Progres Niederkorn recent form

Etzella Ettelbruck 1W 1D 4L

Progres Niederkorn 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Etzella Ettelbruck at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-4
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.25
Goals against / match: 2.50
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.

Progres Niederkorn away

Record (W-D-L): 4-0-1
Win rate: 80%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 0.60
Clean sheets: 3 of 5

They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Etzella Ettelbruck at home only, Progres Niederkorn away only.

Before and after this match

Etzella Ettelbruck, previous: AS Jeunesse Esch v Etzella Ettelbruck analysis
Progres Niederkorn, previous: Progres Niederkorn – UN Kaerjeng 97, 2026-10-17

Prediction snapshot Progres Niederkorn to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Progres Niederkorn