US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz preview
In the National Division fixture on 2026-10-18, US Mondorf-les-bains has a 67% chance to win against Wiltz, who has a 14% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. US Mondorf-les-bains has shown strong recent form, winning 4 of their last 6 matches, while Wiltz is on a 6-match losing streak.
The model predicts 69% for Over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. If Wiltz can improve their performance, they might disrupt the expected outcome.
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz: model vs market
| Source | US Mondorf-les-bains | Draw | Wiltz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Market | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Published | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Edge | -7% | +3% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on US Mondorf-les-bains, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Mondorf-les-bains | 1.22 | 1.22 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.60 | 5.60 | +0.00 |
| Wiltz | 9.50 | 9.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
US Mondorf-les-bains and Wiltz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (US Mondorf-les-bains / Wiltz)
- 1.06 / 0.90
- Defence rating (US Mondorf-les-bains / Wiltz)
- 0.86 / 1.50
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: US Mondorf-les-bains goals. Columns: Wiltz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.93 | |
| Wiltz | 11% | 9.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (US Mondorf-les-bains or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Wiltz) | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | US Mondorf-les-bains win by 2+ | 46% | 2.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
US Mondorf-les-bains and Wiltz recent form
US Mondorf-les-bains
4W 0D 2L
Wiltz
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
US Mondorf-les-bains at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Wiltz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: US Mondorf-les-bains at home only, Wiltz away only.
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Wiltz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: US Mondorf-les-bains 6 · draws 2 · Wiltz 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-09 | Wiltz | 0-2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division |
| 2024-09-15 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 3-2 | Wiltz | National Division |
| 2024-05-12 | Wiltz | 2-2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division |
| 2023-12-03 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 2-0 | Wiltz | National Division |
| 2023-04-30 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 3-0 | Wiltz | National Division |
| 2022-11-27 | Wiltz | 4-4 | US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division |
| 2022-03-06 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 2-0 | Wiltz | National Division |
| 2021-09-18 | Wiltz | 1-2 | US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division |
| 2021-05-16 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 0-3 | Wiltz | National Division |
| 2021-02-28 | Wiltz | 5-0 | US Mondorf-les-bains | National Division |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- F91 Dudelange v Swift Hesperange — match page 2026-10-18
- AS Jeunesse Esch vs Etzella Ettelbruck 2026-10-18
- UNA Strassen v Racing FC Union Luxembourg — match page 2026-10-18
- Victoria Rosport vs FC Differdange 03 2026-10-18
- Atert Bissen v US Hostert — match page 2026-10-18
- Résidence Walferdange vs US Rumelange — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- US Mondorf-les-bains, previous: US Rumelange v US Mondorf-les-bains analysis
- Wiltz, previous: Wiltz v UNA Strassen analysis