Updated

National Division · Matchday 10

Progres Niederkorn vs UN Kaerjeng 97

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Progres Niederkorn to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Progres NiederkornDrawUN Kaerjeng 97

Progres Niederkorn vs UN Kaerjeng 97: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceProgres NiederkornDrawUN Kaerjeng 97
Model39%25%36%
Market47%25%29%
Published45%25%31%
Edge-7%0%+7%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Progres Niederkorn and UN Kaerjeng 97 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.70Progres Niederkorn
1.61UN Kaerjeng 97
Total expected goals
3.31
Attack rating (Progres Niederkorn / UN Kaerjeng 97)
1.04 / 1.62
Defence rating (Progres Niederkorn / UN Kaerjeng 97)
0.70 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Progres Niederkorn vs UN Kaerjeng 97 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 2.5% 1.5% 1 5.2% 11.0% 8.0% 4.3% 2.5% 2 5.3% 8.5% 6.8% 3.7% 2.1% 3 3.0% 4.8% 3.9% 2.1% 1.2% 4+ 1.9% 3.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.7%

Rows: Progres Niederkorn goals. Columns: UN Kaerjeng 97 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Progres Niederkorn vs UN Kaerjeng 97 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Progres Niederkorn vs UN Kaerjeng 97

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Progres Niederkorn45%2.23
Draw25%4.05
UN Kaerjeng 9731%3.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.79
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.97
Double chance1X (Progres Niederkorn or draw)69%1.44
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or UN Kaerjeng 97)55%1.81
Handicap -1Progres Niederkorn win by 2+21%4.79
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Progres Niederkorn and UN Kaerjeng 97 recent form

Progres Niederkorn 3W 1D 2L
UN Kaerjeng 97 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Progres Niederkorn at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

UN Kaerjeng 97 away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
2.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Progres Niederkorn at home only, UN Kaerjeng 97 away only.

Progres Niederkorn vs UN Kaerjeng 97 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Progres Niederkorn 5 · draws 2 · UN Kaerjeng 97 3.

Progres NiederkornDrawsUN Kaerjeng 97
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-27Progres Niederkorn0-3UN Kaerjeng 97Friendlies Clubs
2026-03-22Progres Niederkorn2-2UN Kaerjeng 97National Division
2025-09-28UN Kaerjeng 973-4Progres NiederkornNational Division
2024-04-28Progres Niederkorn2-0UN Kaerjeng 97National Division
2023-11-12UN Kaerjeng 972-0Progres NiederkornNational Division
2023-02-19Progres Niederkorn1-0UN Kaerjeng 97National Division
2022-10-30Progres Niederkorn1-0UN Kaerjeng 97Cup
2022-08-21UN Kaerjeng 971-1Progres NiederkornNational Division
2017-03-05UN Kaerjeng 972-4Progres NiederkornNational Division
2016-09-12Progres Niederkorn0-2UN Kaerjeng 97National Division

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match