ADT vs Sporting Cristal preview
In the fixture between ADT and Sporting Cristal, the 1X2 probabilities show ADT at 27%, a draw at 26%, and Sporting Cristal leading at 46%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Sporting Cristal's recent form is strong, with 6 wins in their last 6 matches, while ADT has a mixed record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the same period.
The model indicates a 56% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability for both teams to score. ADT's expected goals stand at 1.24, while Sporting Cristal's is higher at 1.66. These factors suggest Sporting Cristal may have the upper hand, but if ADT can improve their form, they could challenge the expected outcome.
ADT vs Sporting Cristal: model vs market
| Source | ADT | Draw | Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sporting Cristal below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +11.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
ADT vs Sporting Cristal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sporting Cristal, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADT | 2.30 | 2.55 | +0.25 |
| Draw | 3.37 | 3.32 | -0.05 |
| Sporting Cristal | 2.81 | 2.55 | -0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ADT and Sporting Cristal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (ADT / Sporting Cristal)
- 0.82 / 1.66
- Defence rating (ADT / Sporting Cristal)
- 1.12 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ADT vs Sporting Cristal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ADT goals. Columns: Sporting Cristal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ADT vs Sporting Cristal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ADT vs Sporting Cristal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ADT | 33% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Sporting Cristal | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ADT or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Cristal) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ADT and Sporting Cristal recent form
ADT
2W 3D 1L
Sporting Cristal
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ADT at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Cristal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-10
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.81
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: ADT at home only, Sporting Cristal away only.
ADT vs Sporting Cristal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: ADT 2 · draws 2 · Sporting Cristal 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Sporting Cristal | 5-0 | ADT | Copa De La Liga |
| 2026-09-27 | ADT | 0-1 | Sporting Cristal | Copa De La Liga |
| 2026-05-24 | Sporting Cristal | 2-1 | ADT | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-10-04 | ADT | 3-2 | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-05-17 | Sporting Cristal | 2-1 | ADT | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-07-12 | ADT | 3-1 | Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| 2024-01-27 | Sporting Cristal | 6-2 | ADT | Primera División |
| 2023-08-06 | ADT | 1-1 | Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| 2023-03-04 | Sporting Cristal | 0-0 | ADT | Primera División |
| 2022-09-29 | Sporting Cristal | 4-2 | ADT | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Atletico Grau vs Cusco 2026-11-06
- FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico — match page 2026-11-07
- FBC Melgar v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-11-07
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-11-08
- Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca 2026-11-08
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos 2026-11-08
- Universitario vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- ADT, previous: Comerciantes Unidos – ADT, 2026-11-03
- Sporting Cristal, previous: Sporting Cristal v FC Cajamarca analysis