Universitario vs UCV Moquegua preview
In the match between Universitario and UCV Moquegua, the 1X2 probabilities show Universitario at 83%, while UCV Moquegua sits at 4%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 15% chance. Universitario has a strong expected goals figure of 2.71 compared to UCV Moquegua's 0.52, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, the recent form could complicate matters. Universitario has three wins and one draw in their last five matches, while UCV Moquegua has only one win and three losses. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 38%, suggesting that UCV Moquegua may struggle to find the net. If they manage to score, it could change the dynamics of the match significantly.
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua: model vs market
| Source | Universitario | Draw | UCV Moquegua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 82% | 14% | 5% |
| Market | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| Published | 81% | 13% | 5% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 0.54.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.16, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Universitario, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universitario | 1.15 | 1.15 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 7.10 | 6.90 | -0.20 |
| UCV Moquegua | 17.00 | 16.50 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Universitario and UCV Moquegua expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Universitario / UCV Moquegua)
- 1.55 / 0.48
- Defence rating (Universitario / UCV Moquegua)
- 1.07 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Universitario goals. Columns: UCV Moquegua goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Universitario vs UCV Moquegua
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario | 81% | 1.23 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.43 | |
| UCV Moquegua | 5% | 18.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.53 |
| No | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Universitario or draw) | 95% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or UCV Moquegua) | 19% | 5.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitario win by 2+ | 62% | 1.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Universitario and UCV Moquegua recent form
Universitario
3W 2D 1L
UCV Moquegua
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Universitario at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
UCV Moquegua away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-11
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.44
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Universitario at home only, UCV Moquegua away only.
Universitario vs UCV Moquegua head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Universitario 0 · draws 1 · UCV Moquegua 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | UCV Moquegua | 0-0 | Universitario | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
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- ADT vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico — match page 2026-11-07
- FBC Melgar v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-11-07
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-11-08
- Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca 2026-11-08
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Universitario, previous: Universitario vs Sport Boys prediction
- UCV Moquegua, previous: UCV Moquegua – Club Deportivo Los Chankas, 2026-11-01