Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima preview
In the match between Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima, the 1X2 probabilities show Alianza Lima at 48%, while Los Chankas sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 11%. Alianza Lima's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Los Chankas has drawn 3 of their last 6.
The expected goals suggest Alianza Lima will score 1.52, compared to Los Chankas’ 0.99. There is a 50% chance for both teams to score, and 46% for Over 2.5 goals. However, if Los Chankas can improve their attacking efficiency, they might challenge the expected outcome.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima: model vs market
| Source | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Draw | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 29% | 49% |
| Market | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Published | 20% | 26% | 53% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alianza Lima, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 3.90 | 4.64 | +0.74 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.64 | +0.19 |
| Alianza Lima | 1.83 | 1.68 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.38
- Attack rating (Club Deportivo Los Chankas / Alianza Lima)
- 0.69 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Club Deportivo Los Chankas / Alianza Lima)
- 1.26 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club Deportivo Los Chankas goals. Columns: Alianza Lima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 20% | 4.92 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Alianza Lima | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw) | 47% | 2.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza Lima) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win by 2+ | 25% | 3.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Alianza Lima recent form
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1W 3D 2L
Alianza Lima
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-1-5
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Alianza Lima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-7-2
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 19 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home only, Alianza Lima away only.
Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0 · draws 0 · Alianza Lima 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Alianza Lima | 3-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-11-05 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 1-2 | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-04-19 | Alianza Lima | 1-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
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- ADT vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico — match page 2026-11-07
- FBC Melgar v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-11-07
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca 2026-11-08
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos 2026-11-08
- Universitario vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas, previous: UCV Moquegua – Club Deportivo Los Chankas, 2026-11-01
- Alianza Lima, previous: Alianza Lima vs Cienciano: odds and pick