Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca preview
In the Peru Primera División match between Sport Boys and UTC Cajamarca, the model gives Sport Boys a strong 70% chance to win, with the most likely scoreline being 2-0 at 11%. Sport Boys have an expected goals figure of 2.32, while UTC Cajamarca sits at just 0.85, indicating a significant difference in attacking potential.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty. Both teams have struggled recently, with UTC Cajamarca losing their last 6 matches. While the model predicts a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 61% and a 52% likelihood for both teams to score, the recent form could lead to a less predictable outcome.
Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca: model vs market
| Source | Sport Boys | Draw | UTC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Market | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Published | 64% | 21% | 14% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sport Boys below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.54, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sport Boys, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Boys | 1.41 | 1.49 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.00 |
| UTC Cajamarca | 7.30 | 5.99 | -1.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sport Boys and UTC Cajamarca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.51
- Attack rating (Sport Boys / UTC Cajamarca)
- 1.10 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Sport Boys / UTC Cajamarca)
- 0.94 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sport Boys goals. Columns: UTC Cajamarca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Boys | 64% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.69 | |
| UTC Cajamarca | 14% | 6.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sport Boys or draw) | 86% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or UTC Cajamarca) | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Boys win by 2+ | 50% | 2.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sport Boys and UTC Cajamarca recent form
Sport Boys
2W 2D 2L
UTC Cajamarca
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sport Boys at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-2
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
UTC Cajamarca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-11
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 2.12
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sport Boys at home only, UTC Cajamarca away only.
Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sport Boys 0 · draws 3 · UTC Cajamarca 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | UTC Cajamarca | 0-0 | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-11-02 | Sport Boys | 2-2 | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-06-28 | UTC Cajamarca | 1-1 | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Atletico Grau vs Cusco 2026-11-06
- ADT vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico — match page 2026-11-07
- FBC Melgar v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-11-07
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-11-08
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos 2026-11-08
- Universitario vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Sport Boys, previous: Universitario vs Sport Boys prediction
- UTC Cajamarca, previous: UTC Cajamarca – Deportivo Garcilaso, 2026-11-02