UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso preview
In the fixture between UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportivo Garcilaso at 59% to win, while UTC Cajamarca sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% probability. Deportivo Garcilaso's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, contrasting sharply with UTC Cajamarca's 6 consecutive losses.
The model predicts a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 58%. However, if UTC Cajamarca can improve their form or if Deportivo Garcilaso underperforms, these predictions may not hold true. The expected goals suggest UTC Cajamarca will struggle to keep up, with 1.07 compared to Deportivo Garcilaso's 2.03.
UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso: model vs market
| Source | UTC Cajamarca | Draw | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (UTC Cajamarca / Deportivo Garcilaso)
- 0.76 / 1.39
- Defence rating (UTC Cajamarca / Deportivo Garcilaso)
- 1.38 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UTC Cajamarca goals. Columns: Deportivo Garcilaso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UTC Cajamarca | 18% | 5.46 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UTC Cajamarca or draw) | 41% | 2.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Garcilaso) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Garcilaso win by 2+ | 36% | 2.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
UTC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso recent form
UTC Cajamarca
0W 0D 6L
Deportivo Garcilaso
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UTC Cajamarca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-7
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 4 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Deportivo Garcilaso away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-7
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 0.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: UTC Cajamarca at home only, Deportivo Garcilaso away only.
UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: UTC Cajamarca 1 · draws 1 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2-0 | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-09-26 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 0-0 | UTC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-05-03 | UTC Cajamarca | 2-1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-10-31
- UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page 2026-11-01
- Cusco vs Sport Boys 2026-11-01
- Atletico Grau vs Universitario — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca 2026-11-02
- Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT 2026-11-03
- Alianza Lima v Cienciano — match page 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- UTC Cajamarca, previous: FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca prediction
- Deportivo Garcilaso, previous: Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso: odds and pick