Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar preview
In the fixture between Sport Huancayo and FBC Melgar, the 1X2 probabilities show Sport Huancayo at 51%, while FBC Melgar is at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Sport Huancayo has a strong recent form, winning 6 matches in a row, while FBC Melgar has 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 7 matches.
The model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 61%. However, the recent head-to-head shows Sport Huancayo has not won against FBC Melgar in their last 3 encounters, which could impact the outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar: model vs market
| Source | Sport Huancayo | Draw | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sport Huancayo and FBC Melgar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.12
- Attack rating (Sport Huancayo / FBC Melgar)
- 1.32 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Sport Huancayo / FBC Melgar)
- 0.88 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sport Huancayo goals. Columns: FBC Melgar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Huancayo | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| FBC Melgar | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sport Huancayo or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or FBC Melgar) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Huancayo win by 2+ | 30% | 3.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Sport Huancayo and FBC Melgar recent form
Sport Huancayo
6W 0D 0L
FBC Melgar
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sport Huancayo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-3
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FBC Melgar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sport Huancayo at home only, FBC Melgar away only.
Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sport Huancayo 0 · draws 1 · FBC Melgar 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | FBC Melgar | 4-1 | Sport Huancayo | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-10-26 | FBC Melgar | 2-0 | Sport Huancayo | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-06-21 | Sport Huancayo | 2-2 | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-10-31
- UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page 2026-11-01
- Cusco vs Sport Boys 2026-11-01
- Atletico Grau vs Universitario — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca 2026-11-02
- Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT 2026-11-03
- Alianza Lima v Cienciano — match page 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- Sport Huancayo, previous: Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo: odds and pick
- FBC Melgar, previous: FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos analysis