FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College preview
FBC Melgar has a 64% chance to win against Juan Pablo II College, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 10%. The expected goals show FBC Melgar at 1.56 and Juan Pablo II College at 1.10, indicating a tighter match than the probabilities suggest.
However, both teams to score stands at 54%, and recent form shows FBC Melgar with 3 draws in their last 6 matches, while Juan Pablo II College has won 4 out of 6. This could lead to a different outcome than expected, particularly if Juan Pablo II College continues their recent strong performance.
FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College: model vs market
| Source | FBC Melgar | Draw | Juan Pablo II College |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Published | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Edge | -7% | +3% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.10.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.23, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FBC Melgar, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 1.33 | 1.20 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 4.97 | 6.05 | +1.08 |
| Juan Pablo II College | 7.65 | 10.75 | +3.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FBC Melgar and Juan Pablo II College expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (FBC Melgar / Juan Pablo II College)
- 1.13 / 1.12
- Defence rating (FBC Melgar / Juan Pablo II College)
- 0.92 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FBC Melgar goals. Columns: Juan Pablo II College goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 69% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.47 | |
| Juan Pablo II College | 13% | 7.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FBC Melgar or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Juan Pablo II College) | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win by 2+ | 25% | 4.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FBC Melgar and Juan Pablo II College recent form
FBC Melgar
2W 3D 1L
Juan Pablo II College
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FBC Melgar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 2.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juan Pablo II College away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-9
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FBC Melgar at home only, Juan Pablo II College away only.
FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FBC Melgar 0 · draws 3 · Juan Pablo II College 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Juan Pablo II College | 1-1 | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-08-05 | FBC Melgar | 1-1 | Juan Pablo II College | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-07-02 | Juan Pablo II College | 1-1 | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Atletico Grau vs Cusco 2026-11-06
- ADT vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico — match page 2026-11-07
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-11-08
- Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca 2026-11-08
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos 2026-11-08
- Universitario vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- FBC Melgar, previous: Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar prediction
- Juan Pablo II College, previous: Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College analysis