Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos preview
In the match between Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportivo Garcilaso at 70%, which is significant compared to Comerciantes Unidos at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Deportivo Garcilaso has an expected goals tally of 2.80, while Comerciantes Unidos stands at 1.22.
While the data suggests a strong performance from Deportivo Garcilaso, recent form shows inconsistencies, with two losses in their last six matches. Comerciantes Unidos has also struggled, recording only one win in their last six games. The high probability for Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 67% indicate potential for a high-scoring match, but any surprise performance could change the outcome.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Garcilaso | Draw | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 16% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Published | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 1.33.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Garcilaso, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1.65 | 1.49 | -0.16 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.33 | +0.33 |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 4.43 | 5.50 | +1.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.27
- Attack rating (Deportivo Garcilaso / Comerciantes Unidos)
- 1.45 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Deportivo Garcilaso / Comerciantes Unidos)
- 1.05 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Garcilaso goals. Columns: Comerciantes Unidos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.99 | |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 16% | 6.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Garcilaso or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Comerciantes Unidos) | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Garcilaso win by 2+ | 51% | 1.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Garcilaso and Comerciantes Unidos recent form
Deportivo Garcilaso
3W 0D 3L
Comerciantes Unidos
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Garcilaso at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-2-2
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Comerciantes Unidos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-9
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.94
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Garcilaso at home only, Comerciantes Unidos away only.
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Deportivo Garcilaso 1 · draws 2 · Comerciantes Unidos 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Comerciantes Unidos | 0-0 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-07-27 | Comerciantes Unidos | 0-0 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-02-16 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2-1 | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Atletico Grau vs Cusco 2026-11-06
- ADT vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico — match page 2026-11-07
- FBC Melgar v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-11-07
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-11-08
- Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca 2026-11-08
- Universitario vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Garcilaso, previous: UTC Cajamarca – Deportivo Garcilaso, 2026-11-02
- Comerciantes Unidos, previous: Comerciantes Unidos – ADT, 2026-11-03