Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT preview
In the fixture between Comerciantes Unidos and ADT, the 1X2 probabilities show Comerciantes Unidos at 69%, while ADT sits at 12%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with expected goals of 2.34 for Comerciantes Unidos and 0.87 for ADT. This suggests a strong performance from the home side.
However, recent form indicates some inconsistency for Comerciantes Unidos, with a record of W-L-D-L-L-D in their last six matches. ADT's recent form includes a draw and two losses, but they have won once in their last six games. This could affect the predicted outcome, making it possible for ADT to perform better than expected. The Over 2.5 goals probability stands at 62%, while both teams to score is at 53%.
Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT: model vs market
| Source | Comerciantes Unidos | Draw | ADT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.87.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Comerciantes Unidos and ADT expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Comerciantes Unidos / ADT)
- 1.16 / 0.67
- Defence rating (Comerciantes Unidos / ADT)
- 1.24 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Comerciantes Unidos goals. Columns: ADT goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Comerciantes Unidos | 69% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.20 | |
| ADT | 12% | 8.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Comerciantes Unidos or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or ADT) | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Comerciantes Unidos win by 2+ | 47% | 2.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Comerciantes Unidos and ADT recent form
Comerciantes Unidos
1W 2D 3L
ADT
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Comerciantes Unidos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ADT away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-9
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.87
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Comerciantes Unidos at home only, ADT away only.
Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Comerciantes Unidos 0 · draws 1 · ADT 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | ADT | 2-0 | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-11-23 | Comerciantes Unidos | 0-0 | ADT | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-07-11 | ADT | 1-0 | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-10-31
- UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page 2026-11-01
- Cusco vs Sport Boys 2026-11-01
- Atletico Grau vs Universitario — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca 2026-11-02
- Alianza Lima v Cienciano — match page 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- Comerciantes Unidos, previous: FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos analysis
- ADT, previous: ADT v UCV Moquegua analysis