Alianza Lima vs Cienciano preview
In the fixture between Alianza Lima and Cienciano, the 1X2 probabilities indicate a strong likelihood for Alianza Lima at 64%, while Cienciano sits at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% chance. Alianza Lima's recent form shows 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, contrasting with Cienciano's 2 wins and 4 losses.
While Alianza Lima is favoured, factors that could alter the outcome include Cienciano's past success against them, winning 2 of their last 3 encounters. Additionally, the expected goals suggest Alianza Lima at 1.94 and Cienciano at 0.78, indicating a potential for Over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 47%.
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano: model vs market
| Source | Alianza Lima | Draw | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Alianza Lima and Cienciano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Alianza Lima / Cienciano)
- 1.12 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Alianza Lima / Cienciano)
- 0.71 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza Lima goals. Columns: Cienciano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza Lima vs Cienciano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Lima | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Cienciano | 13% | 7.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza Lima or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Cienciano) | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Lima win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Alianza Lima and Cienciano recent form
Alianza Lima
4W 1D 1L
Cienciano
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza Lima at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-1-2
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.27
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 18 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Cienciano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-8
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.87
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza Lima at home only, Cienciano away only.
Alianza Lima vs Cienciano head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Alianza Lima 1 · draws 0 · Cienciano 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Cienciano | 0-1 | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-09-28 | Cienciano | 2-1 | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-05-03 | Alianza Lima | 0-1 | Cienciano | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-10-31
- UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page 2026-11-01
- Cusco vs Sport Boys 2026-11-01
- Atletico Grau vs Universitario — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca 2026-11-02
- Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT 2026-11-03
Before and after this match
- Alianza Lima, previous: Sporting Cristal – Alianza Lima, 2026-10-29
- Cienciano, previous: Cienciano vs Atletico Grau prediction