Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca preview
In the fixture between Sporting Cristal and FC Cajamarca, the 1X2 probabilities show Sporting Cristal at 79%, while FC Cajamarca sits at 8%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 3-1, with an 8% chance. Sporting Cristal's expected goals are 3.16, compared to FC Cajamarca's 1.02, indicating a strong attacking performance from the home side.
However, the recent form suggests potential challenges for Sporting Cristal, as they have recorded one loss in their last six matches. FC Cajamarca, despite their struggles, managed a win in their last six games, which could impact the outcome. While Over 2.5 goals has a high probability of 79%, the possibility of both teams scoring is at 62%, which could change the dynamics of the match.
Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca: model vs market
| Source | Sporting Cristal | Draw | FC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.16 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sporting Cristal and FC Cajamarca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.18
- Attack rating (Sporting Cristal / FC Cajamarca)
- 1.35 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Sporting Cristal / FC Cajamarca)
- 0.94 / 1.43
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting Cristal goals. Columns: FC Cajamarca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 79% | 1.27 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.58 | |
| FC Cajamarca | 8% | 12.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting Cristal or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Cajamarca) | 21% | 4.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win by 2+ | 61% | 1.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sporting Cristal and FC Cajamarca recent form
Sporting Cristal
5W 0D 1L
FC Cajamarca
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting Cristal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-2
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
FC Cajamarca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-8
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting Cristal at home only, FC Cajamarca away only.
Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sporting Cristal 0 · draws 0 · FC Cajamarca 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | FC Cajamarca | 3-1 | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-10-31
- UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas — match page 2026-11-01
- Cusco vs Sport Boys 2026-11-01
- Atletico Grau vs Universitario — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT 2026-11-03
- Alianza Lima v Cienciano — match page 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- Sporting Cristal, previous: Sporting Cristal – Alianza Lima, 2026-10-29
- FC Cajamarca, previous: FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca prediction