Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College preview
In the match between Alianza Atletico and Juan Pablo II College, the 1X2 probabilities show Alianza Atletico at 42%, Juan Pablo II College at 36%, and a draw at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 74%.
Alianza Atletico has an expected goals figure of 2.03, while Juan Pablo II College sits at 1.88. Recent form indicates Alianza Atletico has two wins in their last six matches, while Juan Pablo II College has three wins in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College: model vs market
| Source | Alianza Atletico | Draw | Juan Pablo II College |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Alianza Atletico and Juan Pablo II College expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (Alianza Atletico / Juan Pablo II College)
- 1.26 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Alianza Atletico / Juan Pablo II College)
- 1.47 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza Atletico goals. Columns: Juan Pablo II College goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Atletico | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Juan Pablo II College | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza Atletico or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Juan Pablo II College) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Atletico win by 2+ | 24% | 4.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Alianza Atletico and Juan Pablo II College recent form
Alianza Atletico
3W 0D 3L
Juan Pablo II College
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza Atletico at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juan Pablo II College away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-8
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza Atletico at home only, Juan Pablo II College away only.
Alianza Atletico vs Juan Pablo II College head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Alianza Atletico 1 · draws 0 · Juan Pablo II College 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Juan Pablo II College | 0-2 | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-09-13 | Alianza Atletico | 0-1 | Juan Pablo II College | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-04-12 | Juan Pablo II College | 1-0 | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
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- UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca 2026-11-02
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Before and after this match
- Alianza Atletico, previous: Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso: odds and pick
- Juan Pablo II College, previous: Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo: odds and pick