UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas preview
In the fixture between UCV Moquegua and Club Deportivo Los Chankas, the 1X2 probabilities show UCV Moquegua at 43%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 12%. UCV Moquegua has struggled recently, with a form record of L-W-L-L-L-L, while Club Deportivo Los Chankas has a record of L-W-D-D-L-L.
The expected goals suggest UCV Moquegua has an advantage with 1.32 compared to 0.97 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. However, the 40% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score indicate that a higher-scoring match is possible, which could affect the outcome.
UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas: model vs market
| Source | UCV Moquegua | Draw | Club Deportivo Los Chankas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.97.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
UCV Moquegua and Club Deportivo Los Chankas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (UCV Moquegua / Club Deportivo Los Chankas)
- 0.53 / 0.83
- Defence rating (UCV Moquegua / Club Deportivo Los Chankas)
- 1.10 / 1.51
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: UCV Moquegua goals. Columns: Club Deportivo Los Chankas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCV Moquegua | 43% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (UCV Moquegua or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | UCV Moquegua win by 2+ | 21% | 4.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
UCV Moquegua and Club Deportivo Los Chankas recent form
UCV Moquegua
1W 0D 5L
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
UCV Moquegua at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-6
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.87
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: UCV Moquegua at home only, Club Deportivo Los Chankas away only.
UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: UCV Moquegua 0 · draws 0 · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 1-0 | UCV Moquegua | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-10-31
- Cusco vs Sport Boys 2026-11-01
- Atletico Grau vs Universitario — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sport Huancayo vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Sporting Cristal vs FC Cajamarca 2026-11-02
- Comerciantes Unidos vs ADT 2026-11-03
- Alianza Lima v Cienciano — match page 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- UCV Moquegua, previous: ADT v UCV Moquegua analysis
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas, previous: Club Deportivo Los Chankas – Cusco, 2026-10-29