FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico preview
In the fixture between FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico, both teams have a 37% chance of winning according to the 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 81% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance for both teams to score. FC Cajamarca's expected goals stand at 1.94, while Alianza Atletico has a higher expected goals figure of 2.39.
FC Cajamarca's recent form shows 5 matches without a win (L-L-L-L-D-L), which could impact their performance. In contrast, Alianza Atletico has won 4 of their last 6 matches (W-W-L-L-W-W), indicating better form. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico: model vs market
| Source | FC Cajamarca | Draw | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 21% | 48% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 33% |
| Published | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Edge | -2% | -2% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cajamarca, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cajamarca | 2.36 | 2.32 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.32 | -0.02 |
| Alianza Atletico | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.33
- Attack rating (FC Cajamarca / Alianza Atletico)
- 0.91 / 1.31
- Defence rating (FC Cajamarca / Alianza Atletico)
- 1.72 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cajamarca goals. Columns: Alianza Atletico goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cajamarca | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Alianza Atletico | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.28 |
| No | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cajamarca or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza Atletico) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cajamarca win by 2+ | 17% | 6.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico recent form
FC Cajamarca
0W 1D 5L
Alianza Atletico
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cajamarca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-9
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 2.12
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
Alianza Atletico away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-9
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cajamarca at home only, Alianza Atletico away only.
FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: FC Cajamarca 0 · draws 1 · Alianza Atletico 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Alianza Atletico | 1-1 | FC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- Atletico Grau vs Cusco 2026-11-06
- ADT vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FBC Melgar v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-11-07
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-11-08
- Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca 2026-11-08
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos 2026-11-08
- Universitario vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- FC Cajamarca, previous: Sporting Cristal v FC Cajamarca analysis
- Alianza Atletico, previous: Alianza Atletico v Juan Pablo II College analysis