Atletico Grau vs Cusco preview
Atletico Grau faces Cusco with a 35% chance of winning compared to Cusco's 37%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Atletico Grau has struggled recently, recording 5 losses and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Cusco has won 3 of their last 6.
The expected goals show Atletico Grau at 1.26 and Cusco at 1.39, indicating a competitive match. Both teams to score sits at 55%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 49%. The recent form of both teams could influence the outcome, particularly if Atletico Grau can improve their performance.
Atletico Grau vs Cusco: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Grau | Draw | Cusco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Published | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atletico Grau vs Cusco odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cusco, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Grau | 2.34 | 2.66 | +0.31 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.38 | -0.04 |
| Cusco | 2.75 | 2.40 | -0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Grau and Cusco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Atletico Grau / Cusco)
- 0.83 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Atletico Grau / Cusco)
- 1.25 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Grau vs Cusco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Grau goals. Columns: Cusco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Grau vs Cusco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Grau vs Cusco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Grau | 34% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Cusco | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Grau or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Cusco) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cusco win by 2+ | 19% | 5.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Grau and Cusco recent form
Atletico Grau
0W 2D 4L
Cusco
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Grau at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-5
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
Cusco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-9
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.94
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 10 penalties (60%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Grau at home only, Cusco away only.
Atletico Grau vs Cusco head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Atletico Grau 3 · draws 4 · Cusco 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Cusco | 1-0 | Atletico Grau | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-10-25 | Cusco | 1-0 | Atletico Grau | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-06-19 | Atletico Grau | 0-0 | Cusco | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-03-07 | Atletico Grau | 0-0 | Cusco | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2024-10-28 | Cusco | 0-1 | Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| 2024-05-17 | Atletico Grau | 4-0 | Cusco | Primera División |
| 2023-09-21 | Cusco | 0-0 | Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| 2023-04-29 | Atletico Grau | 3-0 | Cusco | Primera División |
| 2020-10-10 | Atletico Grau | 1-1 | Cusco | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 16 fixtures
- ADT vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico — match page 2026-11-07
- FBC Melgar v Juan Pablo II College — match page 2026-11-07
- Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-11-08
- Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca 2026-11-08
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos 2026-11-08
- Universitario vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Atletico Grau, previous: Atletico Grau vs Universitario: odds and pick
- Cusco, previous: Cusco vs Sport Boys prediction