ADT vs UCV Moquegua preview
In the fixture between ADT and UCV Moquegua, the 1X2 probabilities show ADT at 46%, a draw at 32%, and UCV Moquegua at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 16% chance. ADT's expected goals are 1.24, while UCV Moquegua's are 0.76, indicating a potential advantage for ADT.
However, both teams to score stands at 39%, suggesting that UCV Moquegua could find the net. Recent form shows ADT with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while UCV Moquegua has lost 5 of their last 6. This could impact the outcome, making it less predictable despite the numbers favoring ADT.
ADT vs UCV Moquegua: model vs market
| Source | ADT | Draw | UCV Moquegua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 32% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 32% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.74.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
ADT and UCV Moquegua expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.98
- Attack rating (ADT / UCV Moquegua)
- 0.67 / 0.57
- Defence rating (ADT / UCV Moquegua)
- 1.23 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ADT vs UCV Moquegua score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ADT goals. Columns: UCV Moquegua goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ADT vs UCV Moquegua goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ADT vs UCV Moquegua
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ADT | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.10 | |
| UCV Moquegua | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.61 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ADT or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or UCV Moquegua) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | ADT win by 2+ | 22% | 4.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ADT and UCV Moquegua recent form
ADT
1W 2D 3L
UCV Moquegua
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ADT at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UCV Moquegua away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-10
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
League matches this season before kick-off: ADT at home only, UCV Moquegua away only.
ADT vs UCV Moquegua head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: ADT 0 · draws 1 · UCV Moquegua 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | UCV Moquegua | 2-2 | ADT | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Universitario vs Sport Boys — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima 2026-10-28
- FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos — match page 2026-10-28
- Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Cienciano vs Atletico Grau 2026-10-28
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Cusco — match page 2026-10-28
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo 2026-10-28
- FC Cajamarca v UTC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- ADT, previous: Atletico Grau vs ADT prediction
- UCV Moquegua, previous: UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima: odds and pick