Cienciano vs Atletico Grau preview
Cienciano faces Atletico Grau with a 59% probability of winning, compared to Atletico Grau's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Cienciano's expected goals of 1.86 against Atletico Grau's 0.88. Cienciano has shown better recent form with two wins in their last three matches, while Atletico Grau has struggled, winning only one of their last three.
While Cienciano appears strong, factors like a draw probability of 24% and both teams to score at 51% could lead to unexpected outcomes. The potential for Over 2.5 goals is at 52%, indicating that while Cienciano may dominate, Atletico Grau could still find the net.
Cienciano vs Atletico Grau: model vs market
| Source | Cienciano | Draw | Atletico Grau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 24% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 24% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cienciano and Atletico Grau expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Cienciano / Atletico Grau)
- 1.12 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Cienciano / Atletico Grau)
- 0.91 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cienciano vs Atletico Grau score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cienciano goals. Columns: Atletico Grau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cienciano vs Atletico Grau goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cienciano vs Atletico Grau
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cienciano | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Atletico Grau | 16% | 6.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cienciano or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Grau) | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cienciano win by 2+ | 35% | 2.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cienciano and Atletico Grau recent form
Cienciano
3W 1D 2L
Atletico Grau
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cienciano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-3
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
Atletico Grau away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-10
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Cienciano at home only, Atletico Grau away only.
Cienciano vs Atletico Grau head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Cienciano 2 · draws 1 · Atletico Grau 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Atletico Grau | 1-2 | Cienciano | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-08-24 | Cienciano | 1-0 | Atletico Grau | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-04-05 | Atletico Grau | 1-1 | Cienciano | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Universitario vs Sport Boys — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima 2026-10-28
- FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos — match page 2026-10-28
- Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Cusco — match page 2026-10-28
- ADT vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo 2026-10-28
- FC Cajamarca v UTC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Cienciano, previous: Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano: odds and pick
- Atletico Grau, previous: Atletico Grau vs ADT prediction