Updated

Peru Primera División · Clausura - 14

Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo

· Estadio Complejo Juan Pablo II, Chongoyape

Alin prediction Juan Pablo II College to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Juan Pablo II CollegeDrawSport Huancayo
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.06.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo preview

Juan Pablo II College faces Sport Huancayo with a 59% chance to win and a predicted scoreline of 2-1, which has a 10% likelihood. Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Juan Pablo II College recording 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Sport Huancayo has won all 6 of their recent games.

However, Sport Huancayo has a perfect record in their last 3 encounters, winning all matches against Juan Pablo II College. This could challenge the expectation of a home victory. Additionally, the model suggests a 59% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score, indicating potential for a high-scoring match.

Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJuan Pablo II CollegeDrawSport Huancayo
Model58%23%18%
Market———
Published58%23%18%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.06.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Juan Pablo II College and Sport Huancayo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.02Juan Pablo II College
1.06Sport Huancayo
Total expected goals
3.08
Attack rating (Juan Pablo II College / Sport Huancayo)
1.31 / 1.15
Defence rating (Juan Pablo II College / Sport Huancayo)
0.87 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 3.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 1 8.3% 10.8% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.3% 9.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6% 3 6.3% 6.7% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 4+ 5.0% 5.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%

Rows: Juan Pablo II College goals. Columns: Sport Huancayo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Juan Pablo II College58%1.71
Draw23%4.32
Sport Huancayo18%5.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.68
Under 2.541%2.47
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.73
No42%2.37
Double chance1X (Juan Pablo II College or draw)82%1.23
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Sport Huancayo)42%2.41
Handicap -1Juan Pablo II College win by 2+36%2.78
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Juan Pablo II College and Sport Huancayo recent form

Juan Pablo II College 4W 2D 0L
Sport Huancayo 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Juan Pablo II College at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-5-4
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.80
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sport Huancayo away

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-9
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.93
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Juan Pablo II College at home only, Sport Huancayo away only.

Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Juan Pablo II College 0 · draws 0 · Sport Huancayo 3.

Juan Pablo II CollegeDrawsSport Huancayo
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Sport Huancayo2-1Juan Pablo II CollegePeru Primera División
2025-07-25Sport Huancayo5-1Juan Pablo II CollegePeru Primera División
2025-02-16Juan Pablo II College0-1Sport HuancayoPeru Primera División

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Juan Pablo II College to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Juan Pablo II College