FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca preview
In the match between FC Cajamarca and UTC Cajamarca, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Cajamarca at 65%, making them the clear favorites. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with expected goals of 2.27 for FC Cajamarca and 1.01 for UTC Cajamarca.
FC Cajamarca's recent form includes 2 wins, while UTC Cajamarca has lost 6 consecutive matches. This could lead to a scenario where the predicted outcome does not hold, especially if UTC Cajamarca manages to improve their performance or if both teams find the net, as the model suggests a 58% chance for both teams to score and a 64% chance for Over 2.5 goals.
FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca: model vs market
| Source | FC Cajamarca | Draw | UTC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FC Cajamarca and UTC Cajamarca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (FC Cajamarca / UTC Cajamarca)
- 1.01 / 0.77
- Defence rating (FC Cajamarca / UTC Cajamarca)
- 1.27 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cajamarca goals. Columns: UTC Cajamarca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cajamarca | 64% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.83 | |
| UTC Cajamarca | 15% | 6.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cajamarca or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or UTC Cajamarca) | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cajamarca win by 2+ | 42% | 2.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Cajamarca and UTC Cajamarca recent form
FC Cajamarca
2W 1D 3L
UTC Cajamarca
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cajamarca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-8
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.07
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
UTC Cajamarca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-11
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 4 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cajamarca at home only, UTC Cajamarca away only.
FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: FC Cajamarca 1 · draws 0 · UTC Cajamarca 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | UTC Cajamarca | 1-2 | FC Cajamarca | Peru Primera División |
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Before and after this match
- FC Cajamarca, previous: Sport Boys – FC Cajamarca, 2026-10-25
- UTC Cajamarca, previous: UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar: odds and pick