Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso preview
In the upcoming match between Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso, the 1X2 probabilities show Alianza Atletico at 39% and Deportivo Garcilaso at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.80 for Alianza Atletico and 1.73 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
Both teams to score stands at 70%, and Over 2.5 goals is projected at 69%. However, Alianza Atletico's recent form includes three wins in their last six matches, while Deportivo Garcilaso has only two wins in the same period. This discrepancy in form could impact the match outcome, making it less predictable.
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso: model vs market
| Source | Alianza Atletico | Draw | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Alianza Atletico / Deportivo Garcilaso)
- 1.31 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Alianza Atletico / Deportivo Garcilaso)
- 1.32 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza Atletico goals. Columns: Deportivo Garcilaso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Atletico | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza Atletico or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Garcilaso) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Atletico win by 2+ | 21% | 4.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso recent form
Alianza Atletico
4W 0D 2L
Deportivo Garcilaso
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza Atletico at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Garcilaso away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-7
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 0.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza Atletico at home only, Deportivo Garcilaso away only.
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Alianza Atletico 3 · draws 0 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2-1 | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División |
| 2026-03-04 | Alianza Atletico | 2-0 | Deportivo Garcilaso | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2025-10-05 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2-4 | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-05-16 | Alianza Atletico | 1-0 | Deportivo Garcilaso | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
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- FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos — match page 2026-10-28
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- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Cusco — match page 2026-10-28
- ADT vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo 2026-10-28
- FC Cajamarca v UTC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Alianza Atletico, previous: Sport Huancayo v Alianza Atletico analysis
- Deportivo Garcilaso, previous: Deportivo Garcilaso v Club Deportivo Los Chankas analysis