FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos preview
FBC Melgar faces Comerciantes Unidos with a 76% probability of winning, while the visitors have just a 9% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with FBC Melgar's expected goals of 2.89 compared to Comerciantes Unidos' 0.96.
FBC Melgar's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Comerciantes Unidos has struggled with 5 winless games. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 59%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that unexpected outcomes could arise, especially considering their head-to-head record of 3 draws and no wins for either side.
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos: model vs market
| Source | FBC Melgar | Draw | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 15% | 9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 75% | 15% | 9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.82 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.78
- Attack rating (FBC Melgar / Comerciantes Unidos)
- 1.33 / 1.04
- Defence rating (FBC Melgar / Comerciantes Unidos)
- 0.87 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FBC Melgar goals. Columns: Comerciantes Unidos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FBC Melgar | 75% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.52 | |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 9% | 10.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.71 |
| No | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FBC Melgar or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Comerciantes Unidos) | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | FBC Melgar win by 2+ | 56% | 1.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FBC Melgar and Comerciantes Unidos recent form
FBC Melgar
4W 2D 0L
Comerciantes Unidos
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FBC Melgar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-3
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Comerciantes Unidos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-9
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FBC Melgar at home only, Comerciantes Unidos away only.
FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FBC Melgar 0 · draws 3 · Comerciantes Unidos 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-1 | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-09-27 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-1 | FBC Melgar | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-05-02 | FBC Melgar | 1-1 | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Universitario vs Sport Boys — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima 2026-10-28
- Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Cienciano vs Atletico Grau 2026-10-28
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Cusco — match page 2026-10-28
- ADT vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo 2026-10-28
- FC Cajamarca v UTC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- FBC Melgar, previous: UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar: odds and pick
- Comerciantes Unidos, previous: Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano: odds and pick