Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima preview
Sporting Cristal faces Alianza Lima with a 53% probability of winning, while Alianza Lima has a 21% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.76 for Sporting Cristal and 1.03 for Alianza Lima. With 53% for Over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, there could be multiple goals in this match.
However, Sporting Cristal has not beaten Alianza Lima in their last 5 encounters, with 4 draws and 1 loss. This history could affect the outcome, making it possible for Alianza Lima to perform better than expected. The recent form shows Sporting Cristal's strong run, but Alianza Lima's mixed results could lead to surprises.
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima: model vs market
| Source | Sporting Cristal | Draw | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Sporting Cristal / Alianza Lima)
- 1.43 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Sporting Cristal / Alianza Lima)
- 0.83 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting Cristal goals. Columns: Alianza Lima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Cristal | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Alianza Lima | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting Cristal or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza Lima) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Cristal win by 2+ | 30% | 3.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima recent form
Sporting Cristal
5W 0D 1L
Alianza Lima
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting Cristal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-2
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Alianza Lima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-7-1
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting Cristal at home only, Alianza Lima away only.
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sporting Cristal 0 · draws 4 · Alianza Lima 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Alianza Lima | 1-1 | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-12-07 | Alianza Lima | 3-3 | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-12-03 | Sporting Cristal | 1-1 | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-08-06 | Alianza Lima | 0-0 | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-03-02 | Sporting Cristal | 1-2 | Alianza Lima | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Universitario vs Sport Boys — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos — match page 2026-10-28
- Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Cienciano vs Atletico Grau 2026-10-28
- Club Deportivo Los Chankas v Cusco — match page 2026-10-28
- ADT vs UCV Moquegua — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo 2026-10-28
- FC Cajamarca v UTC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- Sporting Cristal, previous: Cusco – Sporting Cristal, 2026-10-24
- Alianza Lima, previous: UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima: odds and pick