Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice, Jagiellonia has a 55% chance to win, while both teams to score sits at 66%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Jagiellonia's expected goals are 2.15 compared to GKS Katowice's 1.33, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, GKS Katowice has shown resilience lately, winning 2 of their last 3 matches. Additionally, the recent head-to-head record is evenly split, with each team winning once and one draw in their last 3 encounters. This could challenge the predicted outcome and affect the overall match dynamics.
Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice: model vs market
| Source | Jagiellonia | Draw | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Published | 45% | 25% | 31% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.31.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Jagiellonia, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 2.15 | 2.16 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.71 | -0.01 |
| GKS Katowice | 2.88 | 2.88 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.20
- Attack rating (Jagiellonia / GKS Katowice)
- 1.18 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Jagiellonia / GKS Katowice)
- 0.98 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jagiellonia goals. Columns: GKS Katowice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| GKS Katowice | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jagiellonia or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or GKS Katowice) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Jagiellonia win by 2+ | 29% | 3.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice recent form
Jagiellonia
3W 0D 3L
GKS Katowice
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jagiellonia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GKS Katowice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jagiellonia at home only, GKS Katowice away only.
Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Jagiellonia 1 · draws 1 · GKS Katowice 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | GKS Katowice | 2-2 | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| 2026-03-17 | Jagiellonia | 2-1 | GKS Katowice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-12-04 | GKS Katowice | 3-1 | Jagiellonia | Poland Cup |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Slask Wroclaw v Piast Gliwice — match page 2026-11-07
- Gornik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-11-07
- Widzew Łódź v Pogon Szczecin — match page 2026-11-07
- Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa 2026-11-08
- Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Jagiellonia, previous: Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia analysis
- Jagiellonia, next: Sunderland v Jagiellonia analysis
- GKS Katowice, previous: GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź: odds and pick