Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin preview
Widzew Łódź faces Pogon Szczecin with 40% chances for Widzew to win and 34% for Pogon. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Widzew's expected goals stand at 1.27, while Pogon has 1.42. Recent form shows Widzew with L-D-D-L-D-D, contrasting with Pogon's impressive L-W-W-W-W-W run.
While both teams to score has a 56% likelihood and Over 2.5 goals is at 50%, Widzew's struggles could impact their performance. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome. The head-to-head record shows Widzew with 1 win and Pogon with 2 wins in the last 3 encounters.
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin: model vs market
| Source | Widzew Łódź | Draw | Pogon Szczecin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Published | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Widzew Łódź, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Widzew Łódź | 2.17 | 2.15 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.58 | +0.18 |
| Pogon Szczecin | 3.12 | 3.00 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Widzew Łódź / Pogon Szczecin)
- 0.89 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Widzew Łódź / Pogon Szczecin)
- 1.03 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Widzew Łódź goals. Columns: Pogon Szczecin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Widzew Łódź | 40% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Pogon Szczecin | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Widzew Łódź or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Pogon Szczecin) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Widzew Łódź win by 2+ | 15% | 6.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin recent form
Widzew Łódź
0W 4D 2L
Pogon Szczecin
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Widzew Łódź at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-5-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogon Szczecin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Widzew Łódź at home only, Pogon Szczecin away only.
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Widzew Łódź 1 · draws 1 · Pogon Szczecin 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Pogon Szczecin | 1-0 | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-12-02 | Pogon Szczecin | 0-1 | Widzew Łódź | Poland Cup |
| 2025-08-22 | Widzew Łódź | 1-2 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-02-22 | Widzew Łódź | 0-4 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-08-17 | Pogon Szczecin | 2-0 | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 2023-12-16 | Widzew Łódź | 1-2 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2023-07-30 | Pogon Szczecin | 2-1 | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 2023-01-28 | Widzew Łódź | 3-3 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2022-07-17 | Pogon Szczecin | 2-1 | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Slask Wroclaw v Piast Gliwice — match page 2026-11-07
- Gornik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-11-07
- Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice 2026-11-08
- Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa 2026-11-08
- Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Widzew Łódź, previous: GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź: odds and pick
- Pogon Szczecin, previous: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin prediction