Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin preview
Lech Poznan faces Zaglebie Lubin with a 65% chance of winning, while Zaglebie Lubin has only a 15% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.42 for Lech Poznan and 1.12 for Zaglebie Lubin.
There is a 69% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood for both teams to score. However, recent form shows Lech Poznan has mixed results with W-L-W-D-W-L, while Zaglebie Lubin has a more positive trend with D-W-L-L-W-W. This could impact the match outcome, making the predictions less certain.
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin: model vs market
| Source | Lech Poznan | Draw | Zaglebie Lubin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Published | 61% | 21% | 17% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.26.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lech Poznan, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 1.42 | 1.44 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.65 | 4.55 | -0.10 |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 6.22 | 5.94 | -0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lech Poznan and Zaglebie Lubin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Lech Poznan / Zaglebie Lubin)
- 1.32 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Lech Poznan / Zaglebie Lubin)
- 1.14 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lech Poznan goals. Columns: Zaglebie Lubin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 61% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.73 | |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 17% | 5.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lech Poznan or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Zaglebie Lubin) | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lech Poznan and Zaglebie Lubin recent form
Lech Poznan
3W 1D 2L
Zaglebie Lubin
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lech Poznan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-0
- Win rate
- 86%
- Goals for / match
- 2.86
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Zaglebie Lubin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lech Poznan at home only, Zaglebie Lubin away only.
Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Lech Poznan 1 · draws 0 · Zaglebie Lubin 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Zaglebie Lubin | 0-1 | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-09-12 | Lech Poznan | 1-2 | Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Slask Wroclaw v Piast Gliwice — match page 2026-11-07
- Gornik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-11-07
- Widzew Łódź v Pogon Szczecin — match page 2026-11-07
- Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice 2026-11-08
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Before and after this match
- Lech Poznan, previous: Benfica vs Lech Poznan: odds and pick
- Lech Poznan, next: Union St. Gilloise v Lech Poznan analysis
- Zaglebie Lubin, previous: Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce prediction