Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Gornik Zabrze and Wieczysta Kraków, the 1X2 probabilities show Gornik Zabrze at 62%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 13%. Gornik Zabrze has an expected goals figure of 1.82, while Wieczysta Kraków sits at 0.75.
However, the match could deviate from this forecast due to Wieczysta Kraków's recent form, which includes four losses in their last five matches. Additionally, the model suggests a 48% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score, indicating potential for a different outcome than expected. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków: model vs market
| Source | Gornik Zabrze | Draw | Wieczysta Kraków |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 19% |
| Published | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.75.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gornik Zabrze, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 1.55 | 1.58 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.10 | -0.15 |
| Wieczysta Kraków | 5.01 | 5.00 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gornik Zabrze and Wieczysta Kraków expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (Gornik Zabrze / Wieczysta Kraków)
- 0.86 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Gornik Zabrze / Wieczysta Kraków)
- 0.70 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gornik Zabrze goals. Columns: Wieczysta Kraków goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gornik Zabrze | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Wieczysta Kraków | 17% | 5.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gornik Zabrze or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Wieczysta Kraków) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gornik Zabrze win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gornik Zabrze and Wieczysta Kraków recent form
Gornik Zabrze
1W 5D 0L
Wieczysta Kraków
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gornik Zabrze at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Wieczysta Kraków away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-6
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 8
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gornik Zabrze at home only, Wieczysta Kraków away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Slask Wroclaw v Piast Gliwice — match page 2026-11-07
- Widzew Łódź v Pogon Szczecin — match page 2026-11-07
- Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice 2026-11-08
- Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa 2026-11-08
- Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Gornik Zabrze, previous: Gornik Zabrze v Legia Warszawa analysis
- Wieczysta Kraków, previous: Wieczysta Kraków v Jagiellonia analysis