Updated

Ekstraklasa · Matchday 14

Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock

· Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin· Referee Marcin Kochanek

Alin prediction Motor Lublin to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Motor LublinDrawWisla Plock
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.18.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Motor Lublin is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Motor Lublin1.99 Draw3.90 Wisla Plock3.73

Price as of

Expected return at 1.99: -2.9% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock preview

Motor Lublin has a 49% chance to win against Wisla Plock, who has a 26% chance, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. The model suggests a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 60%.

Motor Lublin's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Wisla Plock has 3 wins and 3 losses. The head-to-head record favors Motor Lublin slightly, with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 win for Wisla Plock in their last 6 encounters. A lower goal count or a draw could change the expected outcome.

Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMotor LublinDrawWisla Plock
Model52%25%23%
Market48%25%27%
Published49%25%26%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.18.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Motor Lublin, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 1.98Now 1.94 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Motor Lublin1.981.94-0.04
Draw3.683.64-0.04
Wisla Plock3.383.46+0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Motor Lublin and Wisla Plock expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.85Motor Lublin
1.18Wisla Plock
Total expected goals
3.03
Attack rating (Motor Lublin / Wisla Plock)
1.13 / 0.95
Defence rating (Motor Lublin / Wisla Plock)
1.04 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 4.6% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 1 7.9% 11.6% 6.2% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.2% 9.8% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 5.1% 6.0% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 3.6% 4.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Motor Lublin goals. Columns: Wisla Plock goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Motor Lublin49%2.05
Draw25%3.95
Wisla Plock26%3.86
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.71
Under 2.542%2.41
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.68
No40%2.47
Double chance1X (Motor Lublin or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Wisla Plock)51%1.95
Handicap -1Motor Lublin win by 2+30%3.32
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Motor Lublin and Wisla Plock recent form

Motor Lublin 3W 3D 0L
Wisla Plock 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Motor Lublin at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-3
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wisla Plock away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-4
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
0.86
Goals against / match
1.86
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Motor Lublin at home only, Wisla Plock away only.

Expected lineups

Motor Lublin lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 33 G. Tratnik
  2. 24 F. Luberecki
  3. 4 T. Plavotić
  4. 18 B. Bereszyński
  5. 29 T. Santos
  6. 9 Rony Lopes
  7. 27 Y. Bourhane
  8. 8 C. Simon
  9. 11 Fábio Ronaldo
  10. 10 K. Czubak
  11. 30 M. Ndiaye

Bench: Paskal Konrad Meyer, A. Akatov, M. Łęgowski, K. Lukoszek, M. Zlomanczuk, F. Haxha, M. Bartoš, Alioune Tall, M. Aïko, M. Popa, Dominik Gregorski

Wisla Plock lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 12 R. Leszczyński
  2. 34 Afonso Silva
  3. 35 M. Kamiński
  4. 4 M. Haglind-Sangré
  5. 19 D. Gallapeni
  6. 3 M. Flis
  7. 17 A. Radwański
  8. 21 Ž. Rogelj
  9. 7 O. Kobacki
  10. 20 Ł. Sekulski
  11. 57 S. Akere

Bench: K. Pomorski, S. Hamulić, F. Hiszpański, J. Pršir, K. Blaszkiewicz, Nikodem Rogowski, J. Burek, M. Więckowski, G. Kuchko

Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Motor Lublin 2 · draws 3 · Wisla Plock 1.

Motor LublinDrawsWisla Plock
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Wisla Plock0-4Motor LublinEkstraklasa
2025-11-08Motor Lublin1-1Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
2025-07-11Motor Lublin2-2Wisla PlockFriendlies Clubs
2025-01-10Motor Lublin2-1Wisla PlockFriendlies Clubs
2024-05-05Wisla Plock1-0Motor LublinI Liga
2023-11-05Motor Lublin2-2Wisla PlockI Liga

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Motor Lublin to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Motor Lublin
Our pick: Motor Lublin to win 18+ Bet Now