Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin, the 1X2 probabilities show Cracovia Krakow at 45%, Motor Lublin at 30%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Over 2.5 goals has a 67% probability, while both teams to score stands at 68%.
Cracovia Krakow's recent form is L-D-W-L-L-L, while Motor Lublin shows D-W-W-D-L-L. The expected goals are 1.81 for Cracovia Krakow and 1.62 for Motor Lublin. The head-to-head record indicates Cracovia Krakow has 0 wins, 1 draw, and Motor Lublin has 1 win in their last 2 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin: model vs market
| Source | Cracovia Krakow | Draw | Motor Lublin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Published | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cracovia Krakow, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia Krakow | 1.98 | 2.05 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.60 | +0.06 |
| Motor Lublin | 3.42 | 3.25 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.43
- Attack rating (Cracovia Krakow / Motor Lublin)
- 0.96 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Cracovia Krakow / Motor Lublin)
- 1.18 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cracovia Krakow goals. Columns: Motor Lublin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cracovia Krakow | 45% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.92 | |
| Motor Lublin | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cracovia Krakow or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Motor Lublin) | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cracovia Krakow win by 2+ | 23% | 4.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin recent form
Cracovia Krakow
1W 1D 4L
Motor Lublin
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cracovia Krakow at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Motor Lublin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cracovia Krakow at home only, Motor Lublin away only.
Cracovia Krakow vs Motor Lublin head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 0 · draws 1 · Motor Lublin 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Motor Lublin | 3-3 | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-11-22 | Cracovia Krakow | 1-2 | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa 2026-10-30
- Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice — match page 2026-10-31
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow 2026-10-31
- GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-11-02
- Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Cracovia Krakow, previous: Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow: odds and pick
- Motor Lublin, previous: Motor Lublin – Raków Częstochowa, 2026-10-27