Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin preview
Raków Częstochowa faces Pogon Szczecin with a 22% chance of winning for Raków compared to 55% for Pogon. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a 10% probability. Raków's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Pogon is on a strong run with 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6.
Both teams to score is at 64%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 65%, indicating a high likelihood of an open game. However, Raków's expected goals of 1.26 suggest they may struggle to find the net against Pogon's stronger attack, which has an expected goals figure of 2.06. This discrepancy could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin: model vs market
| Source | Raków Częstochowa | Draw | Pogon Szczecin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Raków Częstochowa / Pogon Szczecin)
- 1.01 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Raków Częstochowa / Pogon Szczecin)
- 1.43 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Raków Częstochowa goals. Columns: Pogon Szczecin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raków Częstochowa | 22% | 4.53 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Pogon Szczecin | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Raków Częstochowa or draw) | 45% | 2.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Pogon Szczecin) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogon Szczecin win by 2+ | 34% | 2.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin recent form
Raków Częstochowa
2W 0D 4L
Pogon Szczecin
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Raków Częstochowa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogon Szczecin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Raków Częstochowa at home only, Pogon Szczecin away only.
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 1 · draws 0 · Pogon Szczecin 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Raków Częstochowa | 2-0 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-08-31 | Pogon Szczecin | 2-0 | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin — match page 2026-10-30
- Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa 2026-10-30
- Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice — match page 2026-10-31
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow 2026-10-31
- GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Raków Częstochowa, previous: Motor Lublin – Raków Częstochowa, 2026-10-27
- Pogon Szczecin, previous: Pogon Szczecin v Radomiak Radom analysis