Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa, the 1X2 probabilities show Legia at 53%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. The model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 58%.
Legia's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 draws, while Raków has 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. The expected goals suggest Legia will score 2.25, compared to Raków's 1.03. However, the head-to-head record shows no wins for either team in the last 2 encounters, which could impact the outcome.
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa: model vs market
| Source | Legia Warszawa | Draw | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Published | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.03.
- The market prices Legia Warszawa below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Legia Warszawa, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legia Warszawa | 1.74 | 1.86 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.66 | -0.06 |
| Raków Częstochowa | 4.25 | 3.65 | -0.60 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Legia Warszawa / Raków Częstochowa)
- 1.07 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Legia Warszawa / Raków Częstochowa)
- 0.77 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Legia Warszawa goals. Columns: Raków Częstochowa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Raków Częstochowa | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Legia Warszawa or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Raków Częstochowa) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win by 2+ | 42% | 2.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa recent form
Legia Warszawa
2W 3D 1L
Raków Częstochowa
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Legia Warszawa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Raków Częstochowa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Legia Warszawa at home only, Raków Częstochowa away only.
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Legia Warszawa 0 · draws 2 · Raków Częstochowa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Legia Warszawa | 1-1 | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-09-20 | Raków Częstochowa | 1-1 | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Slask Wroclaw v Piast Gliwice — match page 2026-11-07
- Gornik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-11-07
- Widzew Łódź v Pogon Szczecin — match page 2026-11-07
- Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice 2026-11-08
- Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Legia Warszawa, previous: Gornik Zabrze v Legia Warszawa analysis
- Raków Częstochowa, previous: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin prediction