Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa, Gornik Zabrze has a 44% chance of winning compared to Legia's 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 9% probability. Gornik Zabrze's expected goals stand at 1.43, while Legia Warszawa's is slightly lower at 1.21.
However, factors such as recent form could influence the outcome. Gornik Zabrze is unbeaten in their last five matches with two wins, while Legia Warszawa has won three of their last five. Additionally, both teams to score has a 55% probability, which suggests that goals could come from either side. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa: model vs market
| Source | Gornik Zabrze | Draw | Legia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gornik Zabrze, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 2.30 | 2.08 | -0.22 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.38 | +0.02 |
| Legia Warszawa | 2.89 | 3.30 | +0.41 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Gornik Zabrze / Legia Warszawa)
- 1.06 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Gornik Zabrze / Legia Warszawa)
- 0.84 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gornik Zabrze goals. Columns: Legia Warszawa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gornik Zabrze | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Legia Warszawa | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gornik Zabrze or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Legia Warszawa) | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gornik Zabrze win by 2+ | 20% | 4.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa recent form
Gornik Zabrze
3W 3D 0L
Legia Warszawa
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gornik Zabrze at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Legia Warszawa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gornik Zabrze at home only, Legia Warszawa away only.
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 1 · draws 1 · Legia Warszawa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Legia Warszawa | 1-1 | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-10-05 | Gornik Zabrze | 3-1 | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin — match page 2026-10-30
- Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice — match page 2026-10-31
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow 2026-10-31
- GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-11-02
- Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Gornik Zabrze, previous: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze: odds and pick
- Legia Warszawa, previous: Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan prediction