Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce, the 1X2 probabilities show Zaglebie Lubin at 49%, drawing at 27%, and Korona Kielce at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance according to our model.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 50%. Zaglebie Lubin has an expected goals figure of 1.61 compared to Korona Kielce's 1.06. This suggests Zaglebie Lubin may have the edge, but their recent form includes a mix of results, which could impact the outcome.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce: model vs market
| Source | Zaglebie Lubin | Draw | Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.06.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.67
- Attack rating (Zaglebie Lubin / Korona Kielce)
- 0.92 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Zaglebie Lubin / Korona Kielce)
- 1.03 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zaglebie Lubin goals. Columns: Korona Kielce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zaglebie Lubin | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Korona Kielce | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zaglebie Lubin or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Korona Kielce) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zaglebie Lubin win by 2+ | 26% | 3.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce recent form
Zaglebie Lubin
3W 1D 2L
Korona Kielce
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zaglebie Lubin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Korona Kielce away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zaglebie Lubin at home only, Korona Kielce away only.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Zaglebie Lubin 1 · draws 1 · Korona Kielce 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Korona Kielce | 1-2 | Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-08-01 | Zaglebie Lubin | 1-1 | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin — match page 2026-10-30
- Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa 2026-10-30
- Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice — match page 2026-10-31
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow 2026-10-31
- GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-11-02
- Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Zaglebie Lubin, previous: Motor Lublin – Zaglebie Lubin, 2026-10-23
- Korona Kielce, previous: Polonia Warszawa v Korona Kielce analysis