Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow preview
Lech Poznan faces Wisla Krakow with a 55% probability of winning, while Wisla Krakow has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 2.17 for Lech Poznan and 1.24 for Wisla Krakow.
Both teams show potential for scoring, with a 66% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood for both teams to score. However, Lech Poznan's recent form includes a mix of results, and Wisla Krakow has also been inconsistent, which could affect the outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow: model vs market
| Source | Lech Poznan | Draw | Wisla Krakow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 23% | 23% |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lech Poznan, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 1.62 | 1.74 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.00 | -0.25 |
| Wisla Krakow | 4.45 | 4.00 | -0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Lech Poznan / Wisla Krakow)
- 1.64 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Lech Poznan / Wisla Krakow)
- 1.04 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lech Poznan goals. Columns: Wisla Krakow goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Wisla Krakow | 22% | 4.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lech Poznan or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Wisla Krakow) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win by 2+ | 36% | 2.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lech Poznan and Wisla Krakow recent form
Lech Poznan
4W 1D 1L
Wisla Krakow
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lech Poznan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Wisla Krakow away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Lech Poznan at home only, Wisla Krakow away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin — match page 2026-10-30
- Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa 2026-10-30
- Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice — match page 2026-10-31
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-11-02
- Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Lech Poznan, previous: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan: odds and pick
- Lech Poznan, next: Benfica vs Lech Poznan: odds and pick
- Wisla Krakow, previous: Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa: odds and pick