GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź, GKS Katowice has a 47% chance to win, while Widzew Łódź stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of GKS Katowice, with a probability of 11%. The expected goals show GKS Katowice at 1.67 and Widzew Łódź at 0.96, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, both teams to score is at 51%, suggesting that Widzew Łódź could find the net. Recent form shows GKS Katowice with mixed results, while Widzew Łódź has drawn four of their last six matches. This could impact the match outcome if Widzew Łódź manages to improve their scoring.
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź: model vs market
| Source | GKS Katowice | Draw | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices GKS Katowice below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź odds movement
Median bookmaker price on GKS Katowice, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| GKS Katowice | 2.25 | 2.10 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.64 | +0.06 |
| Widzew Łódź | 2.84 | 3.10 | +0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (GKS Katowice / Widzew Łódź)
- 1.14 / 0.81
- Defence rating (GKS Katowice / Widzew Łódź)
- 0.98 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: GKS Katowice goals. Columns: Widzew Łódź goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GKS Katowice | 47% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Widzew Łódź | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (GKS Katowice or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Widzew Łódź) | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | GKS Katowice win by 2+ | 29% | 3.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź recent form
GKS Katowice
3W 0D 3L
Widzew Łódź
0W 5D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
GKS Katowice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Widzew Łódź away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: GKS Katowice at home only, Widzew Łódź away only.
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: GKS Katowice 1 · draws 1 · Widzew Łódź 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | GKS Katowice | 1-1 | Widzew Łódź | Poland Cup |
| 2026-02-08 | GKS Katowice | 1-0 | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-08-02 | Widzew Łódź | 3-0 | GKS Katowice | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin — match page 2026-10-30
- Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa 2026-10-30
- Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice — match page 2026-10-31
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow 2026-10-31
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-11-02
- Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- GKS Katowice, previous: Górnik Łęczna – GKS Katowice, 2026-10-27
- Widzew Łódź, previous: Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze prediction