Santa Clara vs Benfica preview
In the upcoming match between Santa Clara and Benfica, the 1X2 probabilities show Benfica with a strong 64% chance to win compared to Santa Clara's 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. Santa Clara's expected goals are 1.08, while Benfica's are higher at 1.72, indicating a potential edge for the visitors.
However, there are factors that could affect the outcome. Santa Clara has shown some resilience with a recent form of L-W-D-W-W-D, while Benfica is on a winning streak with W-W-L-W-W-W. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 55%, suggesting that Santa Clara may find the net, which could impact the final result. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 53%, indicating a possibility of a high-scoring match.
Santa Clara vs Benfica: model vs market
| Source | Santa Clara | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| Market | 11% | 21% | 68% |
| Published | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Santa Clara vs Benfica odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Benfica, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | 7.75 | 8.50 | +0.75 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.55 | +0.05 |
| Benfica | 1.40 | 1.39 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Santa Clara and Benfica expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.88
- Attack rating (Santa Clara / Benfica)
- 1.05 / 1.94
- Defence rating (Santa Clara / Benfica)
- 0.74 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Santa Clara vs Benfica score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Santa Clara goals. Columns: Benfica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Santa Clara vs Benfica goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Santa Clara vs Benfica
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 14% | 7.10 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Benfica | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Santa Clara or draw) | 36% | 2.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Benfica) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win by 2+ | 29% | 3.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Santa Clara and Benfica recent form
Santa Clara
3W 2D 1L
Benfica
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Santa Clara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Benfica away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Santa Clara at home only, Benfica away only.
Santa Clara vs Benfica head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Santa Clara 0 · draws 1 · Benfica 9.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Santa Clara | 1-2 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-09-12 | Benfica | 1-1 | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-02-15 | Santa Clara | 0-1 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-10-30 | Benfica | 3-0 | Santa Clara | Taça da Liga |
| 2024-09-14 | Benfica | 4-1 | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-05-27 | Benfica | 3-0 | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-01-21 | Santa Clara | 0-3 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-02-12 | Benfica | 2-1 | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
| 2021-09-11 | Santa Clara | 0-5 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 2021-04-26 | Benfica | 2-1 | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Vitória SC vs Maritimo — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Estrela v Casa Pia — match page 2026-10-24
- Alverca vs Arouca 2026-10-24
- GIL Vicente vs FC Porto — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Estoril v Moreirense — match page 2026-10-25
- Nacional vs SC Braga 2026-10-25
- Rio Ave v Famalicao — match page 2026-10-25
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Santa Clara, previous: Mafra vs Santa Clara prediction
- Benfica, previous: Omonia Nicosia – Benfica, 2026-10-22
- Benfica, next: Benfica vs Lech Poznan: odds and pick