Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare preview
Chindia Targoviste faces CSM Satu Mare with a 62% chance to win compared to Satu Mare's 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Chindia’s expected goals of 1.92, while Satu Mare's is only 0.81. Chindia has shown strong recent form with three wins in their last six matches, while Satu Mare has struggled, drawing four times and losing twice.
Despite the strong probabilities, the match could deviate from expectations if Satu Mare improves their attacking output, as both teams to score stands at 48%. Additionally, if Chindia’s defense falters, it could lead to a higher-scoring game, with Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare: model vs market
| Source | Chindia Targoviste | Draw | CSM Satu Mare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 62% | 23% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chindia Targoviste and CSM Satu Mare expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.73
- Attack rating (Chindia Targoviste / CSM Satu Mare)
- 1.39 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Chindia Targoviste / CSM Satu Mare)
- 0.93 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chindia Targoviste goals. Columns: CSM Satu Mare goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chindia Targoviste | 62% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| CSM Satu Mare | 14% | 7.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.06 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chindia Targoviste or draw) | 86% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or CSM Satu Mare) | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chindia Targoviste win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chindia Targoviste and CSM Satu Mare recent form
Chindia Targoviste
4W 0D 2L
CSM Satu Mare
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chindia Targoviste at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CSM Satu Mare away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chindia Targoviste at home only, CSM Satu Mare away only.
Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Chindia Targoviste 1 · draws 0 · CSM Satu Mare 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-24 | CSM Satu Mare | 2-4 | Chindia Targoviste | Liga II |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- CS Dinamo București v Popești-Leordeni — match page 2026-10-24
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- Cetatea Suceava v Slatina — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Politehnica Timisoara vs FC Bacau — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- CS Afumati vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2026-10-25
- Viitorul Şelimbăr vs ASA Targu Mures 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Chindia Targoviste, previous: ASA Targu Mures – Chindia Targoviste, 2026-10-20
- CSM Satu Mare, previous: CSM Satu Mare vs Metalul Buzău prediction