Updated

Liga II · Matchday 11

Viitorul Şelimbăr vs ASA Targu Mures

· Stadionul Municipal, Sibiu

Alin prediction ASA Targu Mures to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Viitorul ŞelimbărDrawASA Targu Mures

Viitorul Şelimbăr vs ASA Targu Mures preview

Viitorul Şelimbăr faces ASA Targu Mures with a 46% probability for an ASA Targu Mures win, compared to 27% for Viitorul Şelimbăr. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.25 for Viitorul Şelimbăr and 1.68 for ASA Targu Mures.

Both teams to score stands at 59%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 56%. Viitorul Şelimbăr has struggled recently, recording four losses in their last five matches, whereas ASA Targu Mures has shown better form with three wins in their last five. This recent form could impact the match outcome, making the probabilities less certain.

Viitorul Şelimbăr vs ASA Targu Mures: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceViitorul ŞelimbărDrawASA Targu Mures
Model27%26%46%
Market———
Published27%26%46%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.25.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Viitorul Şelimbăr and ASA Targu Mures expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.68ASA Targu Mures
Total expected goals
2.94
Attack rating (Viitorul Şelimbăr / ASA Targu Mures)
0.71 / 1.09
Defence rating (Viitorul Şelimbăr / ASA Targu Mures)
1.30 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Viitorul Şelimbăr vs ASA Targu Mures score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 7.8% 7.5% 4.2% 2.6% 1 5.5% 12.3% 9.4% 5.3% 3.2% 2 4.2% 7.0% 5.9% 3.3% 2.0% 3 1.7% 2.9% 2.5% 1.4% 0.8% 4+ 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Viitorul Şelimbăr goals. Columns: ASA Targu Mures goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Viitorul Şelimbăr vs ASA Targu Mures goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Viitorul Şelimbăr vs ASA Targu Mures

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Viitorul Şelimbăr27%3.64
Draw26%3.81
ASA Targu Mures46%2.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.28
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.69
No41%2.46
Double chance1X (Viitorul Şelimbăr or draw)54%1.86
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or ASA Targu Mures)73%1.38
Handicap -1ASA Targu Mures win by 2+25%3.98
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Viitorul Şelimbăr and ASA Targu Mures recent form

Viitorul Şelimbăr 1W 1D 4L
ASA Targu Mures 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Viitorul Şelimbăr at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

ASA Targu Mures away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Viitorul Şelimbăr at home only, ASA Targu Mures away only.

Viitorul Şelimbăr vs ASA Targu Mures head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Viitorul Şelimbăr 0 · draws 0 · ASA Targu Mures 1.

Viitorul ŞelimbărDrawsASA Targu Mures
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-08-09Viitorul Şelimbăr1-3ASA Targu MuresLiga II

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot ASA Targu Mures to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on ASA Targu Mures