ASA Targu Mures vs Chindia Targoviste preview
In the Liga II fixture between ASA Targu Mures and Chindia Targoviste, the 1X2 probabilities show Chindia Targoviste at 43% to win, compared to 33% for ASA Targu Mures. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams have shown recent form, with ASA Targu Mures recording 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Chindia Targoviste has 3 wins in their last 6 as well.
The model indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. However, ASA Targu Mures could disrupt this expectation if they manage to tighten their defense, as they have an expected goals total of 1.59, which is lower than Chindia Targoviste's 1.84.
ASA Targu Mures vs Chindia Targoviste: model vs market
| Source | ASA Targu Mures | Draw | Chindia Targoviste |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| Market | 26% | 29% | 45% |
| Published | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Edge | +6% | -5% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
ASA Targu Mures vs Chindia Targoviste odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chindia Targoviste, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASA Targu Mures | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Chindia Targoviste | 2.01 | 2.01 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ASA Targu Mures and Chindia Targoviste expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.44
- Attack rating (ASA Targu Mures / Chindia Targoviste)
- 1.09 / 1.39
- Defence rating (ASA Targu Mures / Chindia Targoviste)
- 1.12 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ASA Targu Mures vs Chindia Targoviste score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ASA Targu Mures goals. Columns: Chindia Targoviste goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ASA Targu Mures vs Chindia Targoviste goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ASA Targu Mures vs Chindia Targoviste
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ASA Targu Mures | 28% | 3.58 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Chindia Targoviste | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ASA Targu Mures or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Chindia Targoviste) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chindia Targoviste win by 2+ | 24% | 4.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ASA Targu Mures and Chindia Targoviste recent form
ASA Targu Mures
3W 1D 2L
Chindia Targoviste
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ASA Targu Mures at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chindia Targoviste away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: ASA Targu Mures at home only, Chindia Targoviste away only.
ASA Targu Mures vs Chindia Targoviste head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: ASA Targu Mures 0 · draws 1 · Chindia Targoviste 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | ASA Targu Mures | 0-2 | Chindia Targoviste | Liga II |
| 2018-03-31 | Chindia Targoviste | 3-0 | ASA Targu Mures | Liga II |
| 2017-09-18 | ASA Targu Mures | 0-0 | Chindia Targoviste | Liga II |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- CSM Reşiţa v Cetatea Suceava — match page 2026-10-17
- Popești-Leordeni vs CS Afumati — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Slatina vs Unirea Slobozia 2026-10-17
- CSA Steaua Bucureşti v Metaloglobus — match page 2026-10-17
- Dumbrăviţa vs Bihor Oradea — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- CSM Ramnicu Valcea vs FC Politehnica Timisoara 2026-10-17
- FC Bacau vs Gloria Bistriţa — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- ASA Targu Mures, previous: Metalul Buzău v ASA Targu Mures analysis
- ASA Targu Mures, next: Viitorul Şelimbăr – ASA Targu Mures, 2026-10-25
- Chindia Targoviste, previous: Chindia Targoviste – Concordia, 2026-10-10
- Chindia Targoviste, next: Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare: odds and pick