Updated

Liga II · Matchday 10

FC Bacau vs Gloria Bistriţa

· Baza Sportiva FC Bacau

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was FC Bacau to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC BacauDrawGloria Bistriţa

FC Bacau vs Gloria Bistriţa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC BacauDrawGloria Bistriţa
Model48%27%25%
Market45%29%26%
Published46%28%26%
Edge+3%-2%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.10.
  • The market prices FC Bacau below the model: +3.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Bacau vs Gloria Bistriţa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Bacau, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-10.

Opened 2.13Now 2.00 -0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Bacau2.132.00-0.13
Draw3.253.12-0.13
Gloria Bistriţa3.273.40+0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Bacau and Gloria Bistriţa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61FC Bacau
1.10Gloria Bistriţa
Total expected goals
2.71
Attack rating (FC Bacau / Gloria Bistriţa)
1.20 / 1.02
Defence rating (FC Bacau / Gloria Bistriţa)
0.91 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Bacau vs Gloria Bistriţa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.8% 6.1% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1 9.5% 13.0% 6.5% 2.4% 0.8% 2 8.6% 9.5% 5.2% 1.9% 0.7% 3 4.6% 5.1% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 2.7% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: FC Bacau goals. Columns: Gloria Bistriţa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Bacau vs Gloria Bistriţa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Bacau vs Gloria Bistriţa

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Bacau46%2.19
Draw28%3.53
Gloria Bistriţa26%3.84
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.96
Under 2.549%2.04
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.83
No45%2.21
Double chance1X (FC Bacau or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Gloria Bistriţa)54%1.84
Handicap -1FC Bacau win by 2+26%3.89
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Bacau and Gloria Bistriţa recent form

FC Bacau 2W 3D 1L
Gloria Bistriţa 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Bacau at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-0
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.80
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gloria Bistriţa away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Bacau at home only, Gloria Bistriţa away only.

FC Bacau vs Gloria Bistriţa head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: FC Bacau 0 · draws 1 · Gloria Bistriţa 1.

FC BacauDrawsGloria Bistriţa
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-17Gloria Bistriţa1-0FC BacauFriendlies Clubs
2026-02-28FC Bacau1-1Gloria BistriţaLiga II

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match