Updated

Liga II · Matchday 11

CS Afumati vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti

· CNF Buftea

Alin prediction CS Afumati to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CS AfumatiDrawCSA Steaua Bucureşti

CS Afumati vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti preview

CS Afumati faces CSA Steaua Bucureşti with a 62% probability of winning compared to 16% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with CS Afumati's expected goals of 2.08 against CSA Steaua Bucureşti's 0.97. CS Afumati's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while CSA Steaua Bucureşti has only 1 win in their last 6.

However, the match could take a different turn if CSA Steaua Bucureşti improves their performance, as they have managed to draw in 3 of their last 6 games. Additionally, both teams to score is at 55%, indicating a chance for CSA Steaua Bucureşti to find the net. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.

CS Afumati vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCS AfumatiDrawCSA Steaua Bucureşti
Model62%22%16%
Market———
Published62%22%16%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 0.97.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

CS Afumati and CSA Steaua Bucureşti expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.08CS Afumati
0.97CSA Steaua Bucureşti
Total expected goals
3.05
Attack rating (CS Afumati / CSA Steaua Bucureşti)
1.07 / 0.84
Defence rating (CS Afumati / CSA Steaua Bucureşti)
0.97 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CS Afumati vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 3.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1 8.9% 10.5% 4.7% 1.5% 0.5% 2 10.2% 9.9% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 3 7.1% 6.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 5.9% 5.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: CS Afumati goals. Columns: CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CS Afumati vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CS Afumati vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2CS Afumati62%1.62
Draw22%4.49
CSA Steaua Bucureşti16%6.31
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.70
Under 2.541%2.43
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.81
No45%2.24
Double chance1X (CS Afumati or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti)38%2.62
Handicap -1CS Afumati win by 2+39%2.56
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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CS Afumati and CSA Steaua Bucureşti recent form

CS Afumati 4W 1D 1L
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

CS Afumati at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: CS Afumati at home only, CSA Steaua Bucureşti away only.

CS Afumati vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: CS Afumati 0 · draws 0 · CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1.

CS AfumatiDrawsCSA Steaua Bucureşti
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-07CS Afumati0-1CSA Steaua BucureştiLiga II

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot CS Afumati to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on CS Afumati