AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg preview
In the Allsvenskan fixture between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg, the 1X2 probabilities show AIK at 23%, a draw at 21%, and IF Elfsborg at 56%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The expected goals indicate AIK Stockholm at 1.45 and IF Elfsborg at 2.29, suggesting a stronger offensive performance from Elfsborg.
Both teams to score has a 70% likelihood, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 72%. However, AIK's recent form shows they have not won in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Elfsborg's recent results include three wins in their last five, indicating better form heading into this match.
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg: model vs market
| Source | AIK Stockholm | Draw | IF Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Published | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices IF Elfsborg below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IF Elfsborg, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIK Stockholm | 3.16 | 3.00 | -0.16 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| IF Elfsborg | 2.11 | 2.20 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.27
- Attack rating (AIK Stockholm / IF Elfsborg)
- 1.31 / 1.15
- Defence rating (AIK Stockholm / IF Elfsborg)
- 1.28 / 0.65
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AIK Stockholm goals. Columns: IF Elfsborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AIK Stockholm | 29% | 3.42 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| IF Elfsborg | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AIK Stockholm or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or IF Elfsborg) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | IF Elfsborg win by 2+ | 31% | 3.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg recent form
AIK Stockholm
1W 2D 3L
IF Elfsborg
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AIK Stockholm at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.58
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IF Elfsborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AIK Stockholm at home only, IF Elfsborg away only.
Injuries & availability
AIK Stockholm absences
-
A. Helm
knee injury
-
A. Redkin
knee injury
-
D. Besirovic
thigh injury
-
I. Cisse
ankle injury
-
K. Filling
knee injury
-
S. Papagiannopoulos
knee injury
IF Elfsborg absences
-
L. Hagg
inactive
- V. Elfstrom inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: AIK Stockholm 3 · draws 2 · IF Elfsborg 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | IF Elfsborg | 1-1 | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
| 2026-03-21 | IF Elfsborg | 3-2 | AIK Stockholm | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-11-02 | IF Elfsborg | 0-3 | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-04-27 | AIK Stockholm | 2-0 | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 2024-10-27 | AIK Stockholm | 2-1 | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 2024-05-15 | IF Elfsborg | 6-1 | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
| 2023-10-23 | IF Elfsborg | 3-0 | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
| 2023-06-11 | AIK Stockholm | 1-2 | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 2022-11-06 | AIK Stockholm | 0-1 | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 2022-07-10 | IF Elfsborg | 2-2 | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens IF — match page 2026-10-28
- IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Halmstad vs Malmo FF — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Degerfors IF v Vasteras SK FK — match page 2026-10-28
- Hammarby FF vs Sirius 2026-10-29
- Kalmar FF vs Gais 2026-10-29
- Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- AIK Stockholm, previous: Sirius v AIK Stockholm analysis
- IF Elfsborg, previous: IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF: odds and pick
- IF Elfsborg, next: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS: odds and pick