Hammarby FF vs Sirius preview
Hammarby FF has a 44% chance of winning against Sirius, who has a 26% chance, with a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. Hammarby FF has an expected goals figure of 1.34, while Sirius sits at 0.99.
Both teams to score stands at 48%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 41%. Hammarby FF's recent form shows 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Sirius has 4 wins and 1 draw. The head-to-head record shows Hammarby FF with 1 win, 1 draw, and Sirius with 2 wins in their last 4 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Hammarby FF vs Sirius: model vs market
| Source | Hammarby FF | Draw | Sirius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Published | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.85.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Hammarby FF vs Sirius odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hammarby FF, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby FF | 1.53 | 1.50 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.50 | +0.10 |
| Sirius | 5.13 | 5.40 | +0.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hammarby FF and Sirius expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (Hammarby FF / Sirius)
- 1.07 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Hammarby FF / Sirius)
- 0.58 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hammarby FF vs Sirius score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hammarby FF goals. Columns: Sirius goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hammarby FF vs Sirius goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hammarby FF vs Sirius
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hammarby FF | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Sirius | 18% | 5.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.24 |
| No | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hammarby FF or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Sirius) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hammarby FF win by 2+ | 25% | 4.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hammarby FF and Sirius recent form
Hammarby FF
4W 1D 1L
Sirius
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hammarby FF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-2
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.58
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 12
- They have won 14 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sirius away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-1-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 17 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hammarby FF at home only, Sirius away only.
Hammarby FF vs Sirius head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Hammarby FF 1 · draws 1 · Sirius 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Sirius | 2-0 | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2026-03-22 | Hammarby FF | 2-2 | Sirius | Svenska Cupen |
| 2025-08-24 | Sirius | 3-1 | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-05-14 | Hammarby FF | 3-2 | Sirius | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
- AIK Stockholm v IF Elfsborg — match page 2026-10-27
- IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens IF — match page 2026-10-28
- IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Hacken — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Halmstad vs Malmo FF — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Degerfors IF v Vasteras SK FK — match page 2026-10-28
- Kalmar FF vs Gais 2026-10-29
- Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Hammarby FF, previous: Mjallby AIF v Hammarby FF analysis
- Hammarby FF, next: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF prediction
- Sirius, previous: Sirius v AIK Stockholm analysis