Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF preview
In the Superettan fixture between Helsingborg and Falkenbergs FF, the 1X2 probabilities show Helsingborg at 35%, a draw at 28%, and Falkenbergs FF at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance according to our model. Helsingborg's recent form is concerning, with 5 matches without a win (L-D-D-L-D-L), while Falkenbergs FF is in better shape, having won 4 of their last 6 matches (W-L-W-W-D-W).
The expected goals indicate Helsingborg at 0.88 and Falkenbergs FF at 1.53. With Over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 47%, there is potential for a low-scoring match. However, if Helsingborg can improve their form, they might challenge Falkenbergs FF's recent success.
Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF: model vs market
| Source | Helsingborg | Draw | Falkenbergs FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 28% | 51% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 36% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Falkenbergs FF below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.13, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +13.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Falkenbergs FF, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helsingborg | 2.41 | 2.27 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.27 | 3.28 | +0.01 |
| Falkenbergs FF | 2.74 | 2.94 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Helsingborg and Falkenbergs FF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (Helsingborg / Falkenbergs FF)
- 0.63 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Helsingborg / Falkenbergs FF)
- 1.01 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Helsingborg goals. Columns: Falkenbergs FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helsingborg | 35% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Falkenbergs FF | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Helsingborg or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Falkenbergs FF) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Falkenbergs FF win by 2+ | 27% | 3.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Helsingborg and Falkenbergs FF recent form
Helsingborg
0W 3D 3L
Falkenbergs FF
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Helsingborg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Falkenbergs FF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-5
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 16 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Helsingborg at home only, Falkenbergs FF away only.
Expected lineups
Helsingborg lineup · 4-4-2
- 30 E. Rådahl
- 5 S. Bengtsson
- 4 M. Gudmann
- 3 J. Voelkerling Persson
- 2 Obafemi Awodesu
- 10 M. Svensson
- 14 L. Kjellnäs
- 45 D. Amadou
- 21 Julian Larsson
- 9 Alexander Johansson
- 8 O. Addo
Bench: J. Brattberg, A. Akimey, L. Persson, L. Hedenberg, T. Rupil, D. N'Diaye, E. Lindell, J. Hasselqvist, L. Hyppanen
Falkenbergs FF lineup · 4-4-2
- 31 G. Lillienberg
- 8 N. Bertilsson
- 5 N. Hansson
- 4 T. Stålheden
- 6 L. Borgström
- 10 E. Mohammad
- 28 M. Nilsson
- 30 G. Aguda
- 19 O. Lindberg
- 11 H. Källström
- 9 Albin Andersson
Bench: A. Andersson, A. Rupia-Ellis, W. Videhult, A. Miftari, Lassina Sangare, L. Beqiri, A. Salo, Gazton Alexandersson, H. Komano
Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Helsingborg 5 · draws 4 · Falkenbergs FF 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Falkenbergs FF | 2-3 | Helsingborg | Superettan |
| 2026-02-14 | Helsingborg | 1-2 | Falkenbergs FF | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-08-16 | Helsingborg | 0-0 | Falkenbergs FF | Superettan |
| 2025-06-14 | Falkenbergs FF | 2-2 | Helsingborg | Superettan |
| 2025-03-16 | Helsingborg | 2-1 | Falkenbergs FF | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-03-16 | Helsingborg | 2-1 | Falkenbergs FF | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-10-19 | Falkenbergs FF | 1-4 | Helsingborg | Superettan |
| 2021-07-27 | Helsingborg | 4-0 | Falkenbergs FF | Superettan |
| 2020-11-29 | Helsingborg | 0-0 | Falkenbergs FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2020-07-19 | Falkenbergs FF | 2-2 | Helsingborg | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
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- Ljungskile SK vs Landskrona BoIS 2026-11-07
- IK brage v Norrby IF — match page 2026-11-07
- Sandviken vs United Nordic — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Helsingborg, previous: Osters IF v Helsingborg analysis
- Falkenbergs FF, previous: Falkenbergs FF vs Sandviken: odds and pick