Updated

Superettan · Matchday 30

IK brage vs Norrby IF

· Domnarvsvallen, Borlange· Referee Mark Josef

Alin prediction IK brage to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
IK brageDrawNorrby IF
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.17.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — IK brage is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
IK brage2.24 Draw3.50 Norrby IF3.14

Price as of

Expected return at 2.24: -0.1% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

IK brage vs Norrby IF preview

In the Superettan fixture between IK Brage and Norrby IF, the 1X2 probabilities show IK Brage at 45%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). The expected goals indicate IK Brage at 1.77 and Norrby IF at 1.17. While IK Brage has a stronger recent form, having won 6 of the last 10 head-to-head matches, both teams to score stands at 58%, suggesting a possibility for Norrby IF to find the net.

However, IK Brage's recent form includes three losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Norrby IF also has a mixed record, with only one win in their last ten encounters against IK Brage. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.

IK brage vs Norrby IF: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIK brageDrawNorrby IF
Model50%26%24%
Market43%27%30%
Published45%27%29%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.17.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

IK brage vs Norrby IF odds movement

Median bookmaker price on IK brage, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-04.

Opened 2.12Now 2.15 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
IK brage2.122.15+0.03
Draw3.553.42-0.13
Norrby IF3.043.02-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

IK brage and Norrby IF expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77IK brage
1.17Norrby IF
Total expected goals
2.93
Attack rating (IK brage / Norrby IF)
0.95 / 0.66
Defence rating (IK brage / Norrby IF)
1.36 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

IK brage vs Norrby IF score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 5.1% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 1 8.3% 12.1% 6.4% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.3% 9.7% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8% 3 4.9% 5.7% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 3.2% 3.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: IK brage goals. Columns: Norrby IF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

IK brage vs Norrby IF goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for IK brage vs Norrby IF

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2IK brage45%2.24
Draw27%3.77
Norrby IF29%3.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.28
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.39
Double chance1X (IK brage or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Norrby IF)55%1.81
Handicap -1IK brage win by 2+28%3.53
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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IK brage and Norrby IF recent form

IK brage 1W 1D 4L
Norrby IF 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

IK brage at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-6
Win rate
21%
Goals for / match
2.07
Goals against / match
2.14
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Norrby IF away

Record (W-D-L)
1-7-6
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.79
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
3 of 14
  • They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: IK brage at home only, Norrby IF away only.

Expected lineups

IK brage lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 V. Frodig
  2. 16 Y. Rafael
  3. 5 L. Konjuhi
  4. 2 A. Zetterström
  5. 17 P. Jonsson
  6. 8 A. Sporrong
  7. 10 G. Berggren
  8. 6 Lasse Madsen
  9. 12 A. Mortensen
  10. 11 A. Lundin
  11. 21 N. Östberg

Bench: A. Engdahl, J. Skille, Oliwer Stark, M. Sise, V. Ozor Okeke, I. Fors, J. Guadagno

Norrby IF lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 S. Banožić
  2. 17 T. Spendler
  3. 3 J. Engvall
  4. 5 V. Svendsén
  5. 4 A. Nedzibovic
  6. 11 K. Liimatainen
  7. 16 F. Gustafsson
  8. 18 C. Axede
  9. 14 O. Backlund
  10. 28 H. Tilly
  11. 9 A. Yusuf

Bench: D. Bendrik, J. Hjalmar, J. Johansson, M. Wester, J. Bichis, T. Svensson Lillvik, I. Adewale, E. Ferreira, Mouritaza Houmadi

IK brage vs Norrby IF head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: IK brage 6 · draws 3 · Norrby IF 1.

IK brageDrawsNorrby IF
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-05Norrby IF0-1IK brageSuperettan
2023-03-05IK brage5-0Norrby IFSvenska Cupen
2022-08-09Norrby IF2-2IK brageSuperettan
2022-05-28IK brage2-1Norrby IFSuperettan
2021-10-17Norrby IF2-3IK brageSuperettan
2021-05-15IK brage1-2Norrby IFSuperettan
2020-11-02Norrby IF1-4IK brageSuperettan
2020-08-12IK brage1-1Norrby IFSuperettan
2019-08-26Norrby IF1-3IK brageSuperettan
2019-05-12IK brage0-0Norrby IFSuperettan

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot IK brage to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on IK brage
Our pick: IK brage to win 18+ Bet Now