Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo preview
In the Superettan fixture between Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo, the 1X2 probabilities show Norrby IF at 35%, a draw at 31%, and IFK Varnamo at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%.
Both teams have mixed recent form, with Norrby IF losing 4 of their last 6 matches, while IFK Varnamo won 4 of their last 6. The expected goals are close, with Norrby IF at 1.14 and IFK Varnamo at 1.10. Factors that could lead to different outcomes include the potential for Over 2.5 goals at 39% or both teams to score at 47%.
Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo: model vs market
| Source | Norrby IF | Draw | IFK Varnamo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 32% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 32% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Norrby IF / IFK Varnamo)
- 0.82 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Norrby IF / IFK Varnamo)
- 0.87 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Norrby IF goals. Columns: IFK Varnamo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norrby IF | 35% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.17 | |
| IFK Varnamo | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Norrby IF or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or IFK Varnamo) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Norrby IF win by 2+ | 15% | 6.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Norrby IF and IFK Varnamo recent form
Norrby IF
1W 1D 4L
IFK Varnamo
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Norrby IF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.54
- Goals against / match
- 1.46
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IFK Varnamo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-0-7
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 2.07
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Norrby IF at home only, IFK Varnamo away only.
Norrby IF vs IFK Varnamo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Norrby IF 0 · draws 1 · IFK Varnamo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | IFK Varnamo | 2-2 | Norrby IF | Superettan |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Oddevold vs IK brage — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- United Nordic vs GIF Sundsvall 2026-10-31
- Falkenbergs FF vs Sandviken 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Norrby IF, previous: Norrby IF v IFK Norrkoping analysis
- IFK Varnamo, previous: IFK Varnamo – Sandviken, 2026-10-24