Updated

Superettan · Matchday 29

Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK

· Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona

Alin prediction Landskrona BoIS to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Landskrona BoISDrawOrebro SK
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.34.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK preview

In the Superettan fixture, Landskrona BoIS has a 55% chance to win against Orebro SK, who also has a 23% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model predicts 67% for Over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score. Landskrona BoIS has an expected goals figure of 2.13, while Orebro SK sits at 1.34.

Recent form shows Landskrona BoIS with a record of L-W-W-W-L-W, while Orebro SK has W-D-D-L-D-W. In their last three head-to-head matches, Landskrona BoIS has won twice, and Orebro SK once. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLandskrona BoISDrawOrebro SK
Model55%23%23%
Market———
Published55%23%23%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.34.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.13Landskrona BoIS
1.34Orebro SK
Total expected goals
3.47
Attack rating (Landskrona BoIS / Orebro SK)
1.36 / 1.04
Defence rating (Landskrona BoIS / Orebro SK)
0.99 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 3.3% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6% 1 5.7% 9.8% 6.0% 2.7% 1.2% 2 7.0% 9.4% 6.4% 2.8% 1.3% 3 5.0% 6.7% 4.5% 2.0% 0.9% 4+ 4.4% 5.9% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8%

Rows: Landskrona BoIS goals. Columns: Orebro SK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Landskrona BoIS55%1.83
Draw23%4.44
Orebro SK23%4.36
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.48
Under 2.533%3.07
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.94
Double chance1X (Landskrona BoIS or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Orebro SK)45%2.20
Handicap -1Landskrona BoIS win by 2+34%2.97
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK recent form

Landskrona BoIS 4W 0D 2L
Orebro SK 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Landskrona BoIS at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-3
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.54
Goals against / match
1.08
Clean sheets
4 of 13
  • They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Orebro SK away

Record (W-D-L)
2-6-6
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
1.36
Goals against / match
1.86
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Landskrona BoIS at home only, Orebro SK away only.

Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 2 · draws 0 · Orebro SK 1.

Landskrona BoISDrawsOrebro SK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-06Orebro SK1-0Landskrona BoISSuperettan
2025-10-26Orebro SK1-2Landskrona BoISSuperettan
2025-06-22Landskrona BoIS1-0Orebro SKSuperettan

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Landskrona BoIS to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Landskrona BoIS